Kremlin’s demands make meaningful Ukraine-Russia talks impossible despite Trump’s optimism — ISW

This conclusion follows the analysts compiling a summary of statements made by Trump, Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after the May 19 Trump-Putin phone call.

Trump claimed that: “Russia and Ukraine will immediately begin bilateral negotiations on both a ceasefire and a peace agreement.”

He added that the Vatican was “very interested in hosting the negotiations,” and said the US was eager to resume trade with Russia once peace is reached — suggesting Ukraine will also benefit economically during reconstruction.

Trump noted he briefed Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after his talks with Putin.

From the Kremlin’s side, Putin and his aide Yuri Ushakov stated that Russia will present Ukraine with a “memorandum” detailing the proposed terms of a peace treaty, while both sides allegedly move toward direct negotiations. Putin reiterated Russia’s focus on eliminating the “root causes of the war” — a long-standing Kremlin narrative that implies toppling Ukraine’s current leadership and forcing the country into neutrality.

Ushakov also claimed that Trump and Putin discussed a potential prisoner swap between the US and Russia in a “9 for 9” format.

President Zelenskyy said he spoke with Trump before and after the Putin call and confirmed Ukraine’s readiness for a full and unconditional ceasefire, as previously proposed by Trump. Zelenskyy stressed that Ukraine is open to direct talks with Russia “in any format,” suggesting Turkeye, the Vatican, or Switzerland as neutral venues, and urged that both US and European representatives be included “at the appropriate level.”

According to ISW, meaningful negotiations cannot occur unless Russia stops stalling, agrees to a ceasefire before peace talks, and acknowledges the legitimacy of Ukraine’s government, constitution, and sovereignty. The Kremlin has repeatedly claimed — falsely — that Zelenskyy is an illegitimate leader, as are all Ukrainian governments since 2014. But under Ukrainian law, no elections can be held during wartime, and martial law remains in place due to the ongoing threat to Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity.

As long as Russia refuses to recognize Ukraine’s negotiating authority, substantive talks are impossible. Russian officials, including during meetings on May 17, continue pushing the narrative of Ukrainian illegitimacy—likely laying the groundwork for rejecting any future agreements with Kyiv when convenient.

ISW stressed that a ceasefire must precede peace negotiations. The US, Ukraine, and European leaders have consistently called for this sequence to enable continued diplomatic efforts. Yet Russia has resisted this, seeking to exploit ceasefire talks to extract more concessions from Kyiv and the West.

Russia is likely prolonging the negotiation process to maintain military momentum, ISW warned. Any credible ceasefire would require separate, carefully structured negotiations to establish monitoring mechanisms. Combining ceasefire talks with peace negotiations only delays both processes.

“Russia must show willingness to make concessions in any future bilateral talks with Ukraine,” ISW said, especially as the Kremlin appears to be preparing new demands.

Russian officials already insist Ukraine must surrender all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson Oblasts — including areas not occupied by Russian forces — before Moscow agrees to a ceasefire. ISW noted that these territorial claims are typically part of peace treaty negotiations, not ceasefire terms.

Moreover, reports from Western and Ukrainian sources indicate that in the May 16 Istanbul negotiations, the Russian delegation threatened to seize Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts — areas not even formally annexed by Russia. ISW concluded that this tactic indicates Russia will escalate its demands in any peace negotiations if Ukraine accepts preliminary ceasefire conditions.