Russia, Belarus eye provocation against Poland under false flag — ISW

The analysts made this conclusion after analyzing the statement of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) on Sept. 30, falsely claiming that Ukraine was preparing a false-flag attack on Polish critical infrastructure to accuse Russia and Belarus.

According to the SVR, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR) and Poland’s intelligence service will deploy to Poland a sabotage-reconnaissance group made up of Russian and Belarusian nationals from the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment.

The SVR alleged that these troops will pose as Russian and Belarusian special forces at a press conference after being captured by Polish security forces, thereby shifting blame for the incident onto Moscow and Minsk.
The Russian service also claimed that Ukraine might stage a simultaneous “attack” on Polish critical infrastructure to increase public outrage.

“The SVR claimed that Ukraine is trying to exploit the recent drone incursions into NATO airspace to stir anti-Russian sentiment in Poland, escalate the war, and push European countries toward deeper involvement on Ukraine’s side,” ISW wrote.

ISW analysts suggested that the Kremlin likely ordered the SVR to publish the statement to pre-emptively deflect blame for any future Russian or Belarusian sabotage operations against Poland.

The Kremlin routinely spreads unfounded allegations of imminent attacks as part of disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining support for Ukraine and sowing doubt about Russia’s own provocations against NATO members.

“The Kremlin is likely creating the informational groundwork to blame Ukraine for future attacks that Russia itself may carry out against Poland or other NATO countries,” ISW said.

ISW recalled that on Sept. 26, Russia similarly accused Ukraine of conducting recent drone incursions into the airspace of Poland and Romania to ignite conflict between NATO and Russia, despite both Polish and Romanian officials attributing the incidents to Russian actions.

Drone attack on Poland on Sept. 10

On the night of Sept. 10, Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace, many from Belarusian territory. Four drones were shot down.

On Sept. 12, Polish authorities said the attack involved 21 drones. One drone reportedly hit a residential building in Lublin Voivodeship, though later media suggested the damage may have been caused by a missile from a Polish F-16.
Journalists reported that the Russian drones were likely targeting a logistics hub in Rzeszów.

In response, Warsaw convened an emergency cabinet meeting and tightened security measures.
NATO invoked Article 4 of the Alliance treaty, which calls for consultations when a member state is threatened.

Polish and European officials blamed Russia for the coordinated attack and rejected claims of Ukrainian involvement.

On Sept. 13, Poland announced the start of NATO’s Eastern Sentinel mission in response to the drone assault.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski later stated that the drones that entered Poland had the technical capacity to carry munitions but were “unarmed.”

On Sept. 27, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed that Russia launched 92 drones toward Poland on Sept. 10, most of which were intercepted by Ukraine, though 19 still penetrated Polish airspace.

On Sept. 30, the Dutch Defense Ministry announced plans to deploy Patriot, NASAMS, and counter-drone systems in Poland starting in December.