United Russia wins predetermined Duma majority to display war support — ISW

According to preliminary results from Russia's State Duma elections, ruling party United Russia secured a higher vote share than five years ago and likely preserved its constitutional supermajority. The scripted outcome represents a calculated effort to demonstrate that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s call to endorse the war against Ukraine via the ballot box was successfully realized, Russian independent investigative outlet Agentstvo.Novosti reported.

Following the tabulation of 90.43% of electoral protocols, United Russia led with 57.86% of the vote, followed by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) at 13.84%, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) at 8.90%, New People at 7.94%, and A Just Russia — For Truth at 4.95%. In the 2021 legislative elections, United Russia garnered 49.82%. The preliminary totals ensure the Kremlin’s political vehicle retains full legislative control over the 450-seat lower house.

In its Sept. 20 campaign assessment, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that the Kremlin is framing these initial, predetermined results as definitive proof of overwhelming societal backing for the war against Ukraine, even as United Russia's numbers reflect a "comparatively restrained result." Russian Central Election Commission chair Ella Pamfilova announced that full preliminary tallies would be published at 11 a.m. local time on Sept. 21, with finalized official results confirmed on Sept. 25.

However, ISW experts observed that United Russia's official showing fell short of the historic landslides party strategists originally sought to demonstrate widespread public consolidation around Putin and the ruling apparatus. The more modest figures likely reflect Kremlin calculations to acknowledge and manage domestic discontent over the mounting costs and casualties of the war.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov earlier claimed the election results will "reaffirm the loyalty of Russian political parties and voters to Putin's foreign policy." As ISW highlighted, the Kremlin has invested significant domestic propaganda resources into branding United Russia as the primary instrument executing the dictator's wartime directives, while attempting to frame the parliamentary vote as a de facto referendum on the invasion itself.

Analysts underscored that the Kremlin faces an increasingly difficult balancing act between acknowledging latent public dissatisfaction with the war and staging major domestic political milestones to project monolithic patriotic mobilization.

Widespread fraud, repression, and mobilization pressures

Mass ballot-box stuffing: Independent election monitors documented widespread violations and vote manipulations across all voting days from Sept. 18 to 20, including coordinated ballot-stuffing schemes run by regional election commissions.

Purge of observers: Election administrators systematically detained or expelled hundreds of accredited poll monitors affiliated with CPRF and the disqualified anti-war party Yabloko.

Administrative coercion: Public sector workers, municipal employees, and state-backed enterprise staff faced explicit threats of termination if they failed to provide verification of voting participation.

Polling-place conscription: In Novosibirsk, military personnel in uniform intercepted voters directly outside polling stations, handing out military draft summonses and pressuring men into signing active-duty enlistment contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry.