Putin might convince Lukashenko to take a dangerous step despite troop reluctance

Sverdlov stated that the number of servicemen moved to the Ukrainian border is insufficient for an attack.

He described the situation as tense but suggested that there is no evidence that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has coerced Belarusian dictator Oleksandr Lukashenko into launching an attack from Belarusian territory. Sverdlov called current actions more of a "staged" scenario for dramatic statements.

However, Sverdlov warned that Lukashenko might take a more dangerous step, potentially resuming missile attacks from Belarus, although this has not occurred yet. He speculated that Putin might still persuade Lukashenko to act, but sending troops would be impractical and damaging to Lukashenko's image.

Sverdlov added that Lukashenko's regime has not faced serious political or economic consequences for participating in the war.

On Aug. 25, Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged Belarus to withdraw its troops, which had been moved under the pretense of exercises, from the Ukrainian border.

Ukrainian intelligence reports that Belarusian forces are amassing personnel in the Gomel region near Ukraine’s northern borders, under the guise of drills. Belarus has withdrawn tanks, artillery, MLRS, air defense systems, and engineering equipment.

The Belarusian Gayun monitoring project reported on Aug. 23 that Belarus had transferred at least 1,000 soldiers to Gomel since Aug. 10.

On Aug. 22, the State Border Service reported that the situation on the border with Belarus remains stable, with no signs of enemy activity or provocations.

On Aug. 19, AR reported that Belarus had deployed aviation and air defense forces near the Ukrainian border.

On Aug. 18, Lukashenko claimed he had to move nearly a third of his army to the border due to the alleged presence of over 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers.