Analysts believe Lukashenko continues his attempts to resist Moscow's demands for broader participation in the war against Ukraine while simultaneously seeking to maintain the Russia's support.
"Minsk is attempting to find a balance between preserving Russian support for Belarus and what remains of the country's undermined sovereignty," the report wrote.
Since 2022, Lukashenko has refused to allow Russia to deploy the Belarusian armed forces to support the war in Ukraine or to conduct a large-scale conscription of Belarusians into the Russian army. Lukashenko and other senior Belarusian officials also avoid Kremlin rhetoric portraying Ukraine as a threat to Belarus, maintaining a "relatively neutral" stance on the war.
On June 24, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that relay transmitters used to guide Russian drones in Belarus preliminarily ceased operations as of June 22. It is unknown whether the equipment was dismantled or simply turned off.
Media outlets have also reported a decrease in Shahed drone flights along the Belarusian-Ukrainian border in recent days.
Zelenskyy stated that relay transmitters had been installed on towers in Belarusian areas bordering Ukraine to correct Russian UAV strikes against the country. He urged Lukashenko to dismantle the equipment by June 26, otherwise "we will do it."