Moldova faces critical election as Russia ramps up interference

The pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), founded by President Maia Sandu, has dominated parliament since its landslide victory in 2021. Sandu, who was reelected in 2024, has anchored her presidency on Moldova’s path toward joining the European Union. But polling ahead of Sunday’s vote suggested PAS could lose its outright majority, forcing it to seek coalition partners to govern.

The challenge comes from pro-Russian forces regrouping under former president Igor Dodon’s Patriotic Bloc and from Renato Usatîi’s Our Party, which collectively draw significant support. With more than a quarter of voters still undecided, the final balance of power remains uncertain.

Moldova’s large diaspora—traditionally pro-European—could play a decisive role. The government recently expanded the number of countries where Moldovans abroad can cast ballots by mail, including Japan and Australia.

Moscow, meanwhile, is accused of working to disrupt the election. A Bloomberg investigation revealed documents outlining Russian plans to weaken PAS through disinformation campaigns, recruitment of Moldovans abroad to vote for pro-Russian parties, and even orchestrating protests and violent provocations. Moldova’s electoral commission has already barred two pro-Russian parties over illegal foreign financing.

Domestic prosecutors have also stepped up pressure on Kremlin-backed networks inside Moldova. Recent investigations targeted pro-Moscow politicians in Gagauzia and associates of Dodon, accused of preparing unrest to destabilize the country ahead of the vote.

Sandu has repeatedly warned that Russia seeks to use Moldova both as leverage against Ukraine and as a platform for hybrid attacks on the EU. “The outcome of this election matters not just for Moldova, but for the security and stability of the entire region,” she has said.

Moldova, alongside Ukraine, is a candidate for EU membership. The European Commission is expected to complete its legal screening process for both countries soon, a key step before formal accession talks can begin. While Hungary has been blocking Ukraine’s progress, Moldova could theoretically move forward faster.

Last year, Moldovans narrowly approved a constitutional amendment locking in the country’s pro-EU course. The referendum passed by just 0.7 percentage points, with diaspora voters providing the decisive margin.

To underline Western backing, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited Chisinau during Moldova’s Independence Day celebrations in August, signaling strong EU support for Sandu’s government.