However, the Kremlin is likely to continue its military operations in Ukraine even if it fails to secure Ukraine’s capitulation through diplomacy.
The analysts made this conclusion based on recent Bloomberg article and findings from the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Director of National Intelligence Office (DNI).
According to Bloomberg sources in Moscow, the Kremlin is placing its bets on Donald Trump’s return to the White House — but is prepared to keep the war going if its objectives can't be met through US-brokered negotiations.
The DNI’s public report projects that Russia will continue using its battlefield momentum alongside political and information operations in ceasefire negotiations to extract substantial concessions from Ukraine and the West.
ISW highlighted several key takeaways from the DNI's intelligence:
Putin appears more willing to endure a prolonged war than accept any outcome he deems unfavorable. The report said he seemed “determined and prepared to pay a very high price to prevail in what he sees as a defining moment in Russia’s strategic competition with the United States, global history, and his personal legacy.”
Russia still seeks Ukraine’s full capitulation, using both diplomatic and military pressure. This aligns with ISW’s assessment that peace efforts are being manipulated by Putin to extract further concessions from Ukraine and its allies.
Moscow faces steep military and economic challenges that could hinder its ability to sustain the war. The DNI noted heavy Russian losses and poor troop quality. Economically, Russia struggles to balance defense production with civilian needs.
ISW also referenced statements from General Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, made in his April 3 testimony in the US Senate:
Russia has lost 4k+ tanks in Ukraine, Cavoli said. Russia began the war with about 13,000 tanks, but its stored reserves are now “nearing depletion.”
Moscow has increased production of shells, cruise missiles, and FPV drones, signaling plans for continued offensives in Ukraine or even future actions against NATO countries.
The war has distorted Russia’s economy, fueling the defense sector at the expense of civilians. Cavoli warned that while Russia could eventually rearm, its ability to do so depends on how much damage Ukraine can continue to inflict.
ISW previously wrote that Russia’s economic struggles were closely tied to battlefield losses, and that the West cannot rely solely on sanctions to weaken the Kremlin. Instead, they argue, US and allied military support should be ramped up to help Ukraine inflict further damage, strengthening the West’s hand in any future negotiations.
Analysts suggest that these mounting pressures may push the Kremlin to seek its maximalist goals through ceasefire talks or “peace” negotiations — if it perceives an opportunity to lock in gains without further military cost.