Moscow's advance stalls while Ukrainian counterattacks reclaim dozens of settlements

Russia's battlefield positions shifted over the past six months (from Oct. 2025 to March 2026) due to Ukrainian counteroffensives and medium-range strikes, a ban on Russians using Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and the Kremlin's attempts to restrict Telegram, which deepened problems within the Russian army.

Russian forces captured nearly 1,930 square kilometers over six months, advancing at an average of over 10 square kilometers per day, analysts calculated.

For comparison, Russian troops captured nearly 2,720 square kilometers during the same period a year earlier (Oct. 2024 to Mar. 2025), advancing at an average of about 15 square kilometers per day.

The Russian army advanced an average of 5.5 square kilometers per day in the first three months of 2026, compared to over 11 square kilometers per day during the same period in 2025.

Ukrainian counterattacks and medium-range strikes are hindering Russian attempts to advance, the ISW suggested.

Ukrainian Armed Forces achieved their most significant battlefield successes in the winter and spring of 2026 since Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024, and liberated the largest amount of territory since the 2023 counteroffensive, the report emphasized.

Ukrainian troops liberated over 400 square kilometers of territory in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions from late January to mid-March 2026.

Defense Forces also reclaimed at least 183 square kilometers of territory in and around Kupyansk in December 2025. Ukraine retains this territory despite Russia's attempts to regain its positions, the ISW added.

Ukrainian troops in the Oleksandrivka direction liberated 480 square kilometers of territory, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 30.

Defense Forces have almost completely liberated the territories of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Major General Oleksandr Komarenko, head of the General Staff's Main Operational Directorate, said on March 10. According to him, there are three small settlements left to "finish up" and two more to "clear out."

Ukrainian military has recaptured more territory than Russia has seized over the past 30 days, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an address to the UK Parliament on March 17.

Russia was preparing a major offensive operation, but Defense Forces prevented it by launching a counteroffensive, Zelenskyy said in a CNN interview published on March 15.

Ukraine liberated nine settlements in the counteroffensive operation in the Oleksandrivka direction, Air Assault Forces clarified on March 26.