Key ISW findings:
- Russia may be providing North Korea with drone and missile technology in exchange for North Korean troops participating in combat operations in Kursk Oblast.
- North Korean ballistic missiles launched by Russian forces since December 2024 have shown increased accuracy, suggesting Pyongyang is strengthening its military capabilities.
Japan’s NHK television network, citing sources familiar with Russia-North Korea relations, reported that Moscow has agreed to assist Pyongyang in developing and mass-producing drones. In return, North Korea is providing military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
However, the report notes that Russia remains reluctant to assist North Korea in developing nuclear weapons, fearing further diplomatic fallout with the United States and China.
ISW’s key takeaways from Feb. 8:
- Russia may be supplying North Korea with drone and missile technology in exchange for military support.
- Moscow continues to expand its war effort, showing no interest in peace talks with Ukraine.
- Russian forces may be redeploying troops from the Kurakhove sector to Toretsk, preparing for offensive operations toward Kostiantynivka.
- Baltic states have severed ties with the Soviet-era power grid linking them to Russia and Belarus, a major step toward energy independence.
- Ukrainian forces have advanced near Chasiv Yar, while Russian troops have made gains near Kupiansk, Lyman, and Toretsk.
- The Kremlin continues to expand military recruitment efforts, drawing more Russian citizens into the war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that thousands of North Korean soldiers have returned to active combat in Kursk Oblast after a brief pause. A Ukrainian brigade recently released footage showing North Korean forces attacking alongside Russian troops.
According to South Korean intelligence sources, Russia temporarily withdrew North Korean units from the battlefield in mid-January 2025, likely for rest or reassessment of their role in the war.