Russian frontline gains could turn into operational breakthrough — ISW

The analysts cited reports of Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups operating near Dobropillia (northwest of Pokrovsk) and evidence of recent Russian gains southeast of the city.

NASA’s FIRMS satellite system has detected thermal anomalies in nearby settlements, indicating active fighting.

Russian forces have likely captured several villages southeast and east of Dobropillia, and are reportedly operating near Kucheriv Yar, Nove Shakhove, and Bilytske.

Russian sources also claim partial control over the T-0515 Pokrovsk–Dobropillia highway and describe some nearby settlements as “gray zones.”

ISW considers it premature to call these gains an operational breakthrough but noted that Russia appears intent on turning current tactical advances into one. A similar push in April 2024 allowed Russian forces to seize strategically important territory northwest of Avdiivka.

Recent Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian rear-area logistics — including FPV attacks along key highways — are likely forcing Ukrainian forces to reroute and extend supply lines.

ISW assessed that these strikes aim to weaken Ukraine’s defenses and set conditions for faster Russian progress in the Pokrovsk sector.

The analysts suggested that Russia is intensifying operations near Dobropillia to shape the narrative before the Aug, 15 US–Russia summit, as Putin seeks to portray the capture of four Ukrainian oblasts as inevitable.

However, ISW stresses that full occupation is neither certain nor imminent, with significant operational challenges ahead, particularly in Donetsk Oblast.

Deteriorating situation in the Pokrovsk sector

On Aug. 11, former chief of staff of the Azov 12th Special Forces Brigade Bohdan Krotevych (with a Tavr callsign) warned President Volodymyr Zelenskyy about an extremely difficult combat situation on the Pokrovsk–Kostyantynivka line.

“The concept of a fixed front line essentially does not exist. (…) Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are almost encircled," he wrote on X.

"Kostyantynivka is semi-encircled. The enemy is advancing toward Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka.”

DeepState analysts already reported that Russian forces are actively advancing in the Dobropillia area. They suggested that if Russian troops complete force build-up and consolidate in these areas, they will prepare for further advances deeper into Ukrainian territory.

The invaders would also bring in drone crews to complicate the restructuring of alternative logistics and the defense of surrounding positions by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

“With developments like these, if they do not change, we could face a situation where Dobropillia falls faster than Pokrovsk,” DeepState concluded.

Representatives of the Dnipro Operational-Strategic Group commented on the situation in the Dobropillia and Pokrovsk sectors. They said that Russian forces, while suffering heavy personnel losses, are trying to slip small groups past Ukraine’s first defensive line.

“The infiltration of these groups, while requiring the use of reserves to destroy them, is not ‘territorial control.’ Misunderstanding this has repeatedly led to mistakes in analyzing the situation and in public discussions in the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration area,” they said.

The fighting in this area is the most intense compared to other frontline sectors.

“Without a doubt, the situation is and remains difficult," the military said.

"Nevertheless, Ukrainian forces are making maximum efforts to ensure that even those Russian groups that have penetrated the first line are destroyed in the shortest possible time. And this is happening. We strongly ask that this be taken into account and that information from unverified and poorly informed sources not be spread.”

On Aug. 9, the UK Defense Ministry, citing intelligence data, estimated that in July 2025, Russian occupation forces likely captured approximately 500–550 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, particularly in Donetsk Oblast.