“Vladimir Putin is a hostage to his own defeat and will continue to raise the stakes,” Pawel Szota said. He argued that the Kremlin is prepared to sacrifice Russians’ living standards, the economy and investment in pursuit of victory in the war.
Col. Szota also said the primary direct military threat to Poland comes from Russia, as Moscow views Poland and NATO’s eastern flank as “an obstacle to achieving its imperial ambitions.”
He said Polish intelligence is considering scenarios involving Russian provocations against the Baltic states, including the possible use of so-called “little green men” — a term used to describe Russian troops without insignia who operated in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014.
“Russia is systematically pushing red lines, testing NATO’s responses. The cost of such provocations for Moscow is low, while the Alliance’s response has been largely political, encouraging further escalation,” Szota said.
On June 11, Politico quoted German Army commander Lt. Gen. Christian Freuding as saying Germany should prepare for a possible Russian attack in 2029 or even earlier.
Also on June 11, the Financial Times quoted NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Alexus Grynkewich as saying Russia is not seeking a conflict with the Alliance. Asked about the possibility of a Russian attack on the Baltic states, Grynkewich said his task is to ensure Moscow understands that it cannot achieve success through military means in a conflict with NATO.