Putin views U.S. as depleted by Iran war, is ripe for escalation — WP

The classified assessment of the Kremlin’s stance was drafted ahead of a secret mission to Moscow this week by CIA Director John Ratcliffe. According to The Washington Post, the CIA chief warned Moscow against escalating the war against Ukraine, arguing that this move would produce the opposite intended effect.

According to an informed U.S. official, Ratcliffe's trip to Moscow was driven "not so much by Putin being in a stalemate" — given his military's failure to break the battlefield deadlock in Ukraine — "as by Russia believing we have exhausted our resources and cannot intervene."

Ratcliffe cautioned Russian officials that if Putin significantly escalates the war in Ukraine, it will push U.S. President Donald Trump toward closer alignment with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the outlet reported.

The intelligence revealing the Kremlin's perception of American vulnerability follows reports regarding reduced U.S. combat readiness and ammunition shortfalls. Media assessments suggest the United States has heavily depleted inventories of Patriot interceptors and other air defense systems, offensive armaments including Tomahawk cruise missiles and ATACMS, alongside Reaper uncrewed aerial vehicles. The White House and Pentagon, however, deny the existence of critical munitions shortages.

State Secretary Marco Rubio informed foreign counterparts that Washington is not planning new strikes against Iran, Axios reported.

On Aug. 25, CIA Director John Ratcliffe arrived in Moscow on a secret visit, marking the first trip to Russia by a sitting CIA director since 2021.

Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS) Sergey Naryshkin confirmed holding talks with the CIA chief in Moscow. The Kremlin claimed the U.S. official did not meet directly with Putin. President Donald Trump described Ratcliffe’s mission as "semi-routine" and dismissed speculation that the trip was linked to threats of Russian strikes against the United Kingdom.

On Aug. 27, Head of the Presidential Office Kyrylo Budanov stated that the war in Ukraine was not the primary agenda item in the CIA director’s visit to Moscow.