Putin escalates Ukraine war, convinced losing Donbas means death — The Economist

While none of Russia's mounting economic or political fractures are immediately fatal to Putin, his calculations remain dictated by the foundational logic of his regime: never project weakness. The Russian system tolerates violence but punishes failure, the report emphasized.

Putin reportedly believes that concluding the war without seizing at least the entire Donbas would expose him to direct mortal peril. According to an insider, at one point during the war, he told confidants: "They will hang me."

While no outside observer can fully access Putin’s mindset, the drivers behind this escalation — much like the initial 2022 invasion — stem from domestic imperatives. The dictator's primary goal has consistently been the preservation of his personal grip on power, and consequently, his life.

A primary challenge facing the Kremlin is the erosion of passive public acquiescence toward the war. Trust in state propaganda is deteriorating, younger demographics are increasingly posting anti-war messages across social platforms, and Putin's approval ratings are slipping.

Sentiment among the Russian elite is darker still, the publication noted. One insider explained that the defining issue is not solely economic disruption or battlefield paralysis, but lost time: the full-scale invasion has dragged on for nearly five years without decisive victory. A growing perception within the ruling class suggests that "the emperor has no clothes." [this expression comes from the famous 1837 Cambridge English Dictionary fairy tale The Emperor's New Clothes by Hans Christian Andersen, means pointing out an obvious, glaring truth that everyone else is ignoring or afraid to admit, usually because of social pressure, fear of authority, or a collective illusion - ed.]

Continuing the war in its current attrition posture offers no remedy for the Kremlin either, merely draining state coffers and burning through political capital.

Consequently, Russia is expected to step up hybrid warfare and sabotage targeting Kyiv’s European allies, alongside disruptions of continental supply corridors feeding Ukraine. Western intelligence agencies harbor concerns that Moscow could orchestrate strikes against European defense manufacturing facilities, though they assess that Putin seeks to avoid direct military confrontation with NATO.

Meanwhile, a longtime Putin associate observed that the Russian leader likely interpreted CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s recent secret trip to Moscow as a symptom of American hesitation — mirroring how Putin treated the November 2021 visit by former CIA Director William Burns ahead of the 2022 invasion.

Shifting Donbas timelines

On May 13, The Financial Times reported that senior Russian commanders persuaded Putin that the military could occupy the entire Donbas by autumn 2026, creating conditions to press fresh territorial demands.

On June 29, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that Russia had once again postponed its operational deadline for seizing the Donbas to Dec. 31, 2026, marking roughly the fifteenth timeline revision since the 2022 invasion began.

On Aug. 29, Deputy Head of Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa revealed that Russian operational commanders are now lobbying the Kremlin to delay the deadline further, pushing the target completion date to March 31, 2027.

President Zelenskyy has consistently maintained that Ukrainian forces will not cede the Donbas, projecting that Russian forces will require at least two additional years and incur approximately 800k casualties to fully occupy Donetsk Oblast.