Russian dictator’s dream of becoming a ‘great tsar’ crumbles — The Economist

The publication stressed that Putin, the sole architect of four years of bloody war, is rapidly losing any chance of achieving a victory.

While some hope that peace talks will give the dictator an exit — assuming U.S. President Donald Trump might force Ukraine to concede territory — this outcome is becoming less likely. Analysts believe that even a potential peace agreement could trigger profound economic and political instability in Russia, destroying Putin's plans to cement his legacy as a 'great tsar.'

Battlefield failures and economic drain

The Economist highlighted the battlefield as Putin's primary problem. During World War II, the Red Army advanced 1,600 kilometers from Moscow to Berlin. In contrast, since 2022, enemy forces in Donetsk Oblast have advanced only 60 kilometers.

Russia cannot break Ukraine's defense lines due to a 30-kilometer kill zone, mass casualties, and communication failures.

To maintain the meat grinder, Moscow relies on exorbitant payouts to recruit new soldiers. These volunteer costs now total 5.1 trillion rubles (approximately $55 billion) annually, equivalent to 90% of the federal budget deficit, amid a shrinking economy and falling oil revenues.

Putin refuses to yield and will likely continue striking Ukrainian cities and energy grids to break morale. However, air attacks alone will not force capitulation.

Fear of peace in Russia

The Kremlin continues to reject realistic peace agreements. The Economist assessed that Trump's ability to pressure President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into a bad deal for the Donbas has 'passed its peak.' Ukraine is less dependent on U.S. weapons and is demanding ironclad U.S. security guarantees in any settlement.

Furthermore, Putin actively fears peace because ending the war will spark a domestic crisis. Russia has diverted 8% of its GDP to defense, leaving the rest of the economy in steep decline. Returning, disgruntled veterans could destabilize the regime — mirroring the unrest preceding the 1917 revolution and following the 1980s Afghan war.

Both countries risk being caught in a 'conflict trap.' Ending the war requires aggressive pursuit of Russia's shadow fleet and strict US sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, the publication concluded.

Geneva talks on Feb. 18

Axios earlier reported that trilateral negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. in Geneva reached a 'dead end' due to Moscow's demand for the entirety of Donetsk Oblast.

President Zelenskyy said on Feb. 18 that progress was made exclusively on military issues, specifically a U.S.-monitored ceasefire mechanism. Key political issues remain unresolved.

Zelenskyy accused Russia of stalling the negotiation process. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also assessed that Putin remains fully committed to his initial goal of Ukrainian capitulation, using the peace talks merely to distract the U.S.