Putin claimed that in response to the Dec. 2 attack on a Russian tanker, the “most radical” reaction from Russia would be to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea. Analysts consider this a threat to seize Ukrainian territory in Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts.
On June 5, Deputy Head of the Ukrainian President’s Office Pavlo Palisa told reporters that Russia likely aims to occupy all of Ukraine on the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River and capture Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts by the end of 2026, depriving Ukraine of access to the Black Sea.
A Russian “war correspondent” responded to Putin’s threat, noting that it is “currently impossible” for Russian forces to take Mykolaiv and Odesa. According to ISW analysts, Russia lacks the ability to cross the Dnipro River, make a major push west, and capture Odesa.
In addition, ISW noted that Russia is attempting to create information conditions to justify Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports in order to implement a de facto blockade of Ukraine.
On Dec. 2, Turkiye’s Directorate General of Maritime Affairs reported an attack on a Russian vessel. It claimed the ship was traveling from Russia to Georgia carrying sunflower oil. Ukrainian MFA spokesperson Heorhiy Tykhyi said Ukraine was not involved and that Russia likely staged the incident. He added it is unclear why the ship was sailing from Russia to Georgia through Turkiye’s exclusive economic zone.
On Nov. 28, an explosion occurred near the Bosphorus in the Black Sea on the tanker KAIRO, reportedly part of Russia’s “shadow fleet.” Turkiye confirmed an “external impact” on the vessel, which had 25 crew members onboard. Bloomberg reported that the VIRAT tanker was also damaged. NV’s sources in Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said both sanctioned tankers were hit by SBU Sea Baby naval drones in a joint operation with the Ukrainian Navy.
Putin responded to questions about that incident by saying Russia “will take retaliatory measures.” He threatened that Russia will expand strikes on Ukrainian ports and on vessels heading to them, or strike ships of countries allegedly helping Ukraine attack Russian targets.
Russia previously sought to impose a de facto blockade on Ukrainian ports by withdrawing from the 2022–2023 Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed commercial ships to travel between Odesa Oblast ports and the Bosphorus without fear of Russian attacks.
“Russia may also attempt to use the threat of strikes to deter international ships from transporting Ukrainian grain due to high insurance costs — and ultimately blame Ukraine for causing global food instability,” ISW analysts concluded.