U.S. officials have previously said that the overthrow of Iran’s repressive system of rule is one of the objectives of the U.S.-Israeli operation.
Three U.S. officials familiar with U.S. intelligence assessments expressed deep skepticism that Iran’s weakened opposition could topple the theocratic, authoritarian system that has been in place since 1979.
None of the officials fully ruled out the possibility of the Iranian government’s collapse. However, they said it was unlikely in the near term.
Several weeks before the strikes on Iran, the Central Intelligence Agency provided the White House with an assessment that, if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were killed, he could be replaced either by figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or by clerics no less hard-line.
A U.S. official familiar with internal White House deliberations said, however, that IRGC figures are unlikely to surrender voluntarily.
According to Reuters, officials from various U.S. agencies have been debating since January whether Khamenei’s killing would lead to meaningful changes in Iran’s approach to negotiations with the United States over its nuclear program.
U.S. officials have also discussed whether Khamenei’s death would hinder Iran’s ability to rebuild its missile or nuclear facilities.
After protests in Iran in January, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff held several conversations with Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, sources said. Those contacts raised questions about how far the United States would support him should the Iranian government fall.
In recent weeks, however, senior U.S. officials have increasingly taken a pessimistic view that any opposition figure backed by Washington would realistically be able to control the country.
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran
On Feb. 28, 2026, Israel and the United States announced strikes on Iran in operations dubbed Roaring Lion (Israel) and Epic Fury (United States).
Numerous explosions were reported in Tehran and several other major Iranian cities. Strikes were reported on the residences of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian, as well as on military and nuclear sites. Satellite imagery showed that Khamenei’s palace was completely destroyed.
Iranian state media confirmed that Khamenei was killed on the morning of Feb. 28 in U.S. and Israeli strikes. The death of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Mohammad Pakpour was also confirmed. According to the IRNA news agency, the attack also killed Ali Shamkhani, the supreme leader’s top security adviser.
In response, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel. Iranian missiles also struck Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, with reports of attacks on U.S. military bases.