Russia could attack Kyiv and Chernihiv in 2027 if draft starts in fall

Skibitskyi emphasized that whether a new draft occurs will become evident following Russia's State Duma elections in September.

"Intelligence indicators and observable signs of mobilization will emerge; it is impossible to carry out covert mobilization nowadays. But the enemy is ready for it one way or another, because Putin's decree dating back to 2022 remains in force. Before the elections, they will try to demonstrate gains on front sectors where they can make progress. After that, mobilization may follow," Skibitskyi noted.

When asked directly whether an assault on Chernihiv and Kyiv oblasts remains possible, the HUR representative pointed to past timelines:

"The Russians have experience carrying out such mobilization, and we understand how it works. They began partial mobilization in the second half of October 2022. Combat units that actually could enter the fight were at the front by January 2023, with some arriving as early as December. Let's remember when they launched their offensive on Kyiv — Feb. 24, 2022. So if the aggressor launches a new wave of mobilization this year, they could prepare a powerful strike force by around February, at the beginning of next year. And that does not rule out the Russian command launching such an operation in February 2027, given Putin's fondness for symbolic dates."

Skibitskyi clarified that exact timelines will depend on whether mobilization occurs and the total number of personnel inducted into service.

"Could the enemy launch an offensive from the north this year?" the intelligence official stressed.

"Theoretically, yes, but in practice, there are neither the conditions nor indicators showing readiness for such an operation, nor are there sufficient troops available."

HUR data indicated the Russian occupation force now comprises approximately 670,000 active combat personnel and 65,000 troops in reserve. Concurrently, Russian battlefield casualties exceed monthly contract recruitment volumes.

On June 30, then-Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi warned that Russia could potentially stage an offensive into Chernihiv Oblast from Bryansk Oblast, confirming that the Defense Forces were preparing contingencies for such scenarios.

On July 17, Syrskyi reiterated that the Russian military maintains ambitions to seize Ukrainian territory and establish a buffer zone along the northern border.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted in a July 31 assessment that the Russian military command has been misleading the Kremlin regarding the scale of tactical gains in northern Ukraine to support a broader narrative of active offensive momentum across all front lines.