Kremlin refuses compromise, demands Ukraine’s full capitulation — ISW

At a press conference in Turkeye, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that Moscow will only halt hostilities if peace talks produce a "stable outcome" that satisfies Russia and reflects the "realities on the battlefield." He also insisted that any agreement must include a provision permanently barring Ukraine from joining NATO.

Meanwhile, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told Russian state media that Moscow will not agree to a ceasefire unless it "eliminates the root causes of the war" — framing NATO’s post-1991 expansion as one of the causes.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov echoed this stance, claiming that the war "cannot be resolved without addressing its fundamental causes."

According to ISW, Russia’s leadership has repeatedly framed peace talks as a tool to achieve its long-term strategic objectives, which Lavrov previously defined as stopping NATO’s expansion, securing territorial concessions, and limiting Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Ukraine, however, has made it clear that it will reject any so-called peace deal that amounts to capitulation — just as it did with the 2022 Istanbul protocols, which offered Russia sweeping concessions and were ultimately deemed unacceptable by Kyiv.

U.S.-Russia negotiations

Feb. 18 – U.S. and Russian officials held 4.5-hour talks in Riyadh, marking their first direct negotiations since the full-scale invasion began. Both sides described the talks as productive.

Feb. 22 – U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff suggested that Washington is "very close" to securing a peace deal be tween Ukraine and Russia, implying that both sides will need to make territorial or economic concessions.

White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt stated that Donald Trump is confident he can strike a deal with Russia within a week to end the war.

Feb. 24 – Zelenskyy dismissed the notion of an imminent peace deal, saying that any claims of a near-term resolution are unrealistic. The Kremlin also denied having any knowledge of Trump’s supposed plan.

Feb. 24 – Lavrov reiterated that any agreement must contain an "ironclad guarantee" that Ukraine will never join NATO.