Russia pushes false narrative of looming attack on Chernihiv — ISW

The analysts cited Andrii Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, who said that the Russians were spreading narratives about “preparations for an offensive on Chernihiv”, supposedly as a part of its psyop against Ukraine, and linked to efforts to drag out U.S. attempts to end the war.

Kovalenko noted that Russia’s goal is to ramp up pressure on Ukrainian society and to create an informational illusion that the occupation army is “capable of winning everywhere along the front.”

He also stressed that Russia now does not have the capability to advance on Chernihiv. The head of the Center assured that the Ukrainian Armed Forces control the situation in Chernihiv Oblast and are repelling enemy provocations along the border.

Kovalenko added that Russia earlier carried out similar cognitive operations targeting Sumy and Kharkiv, but Ukraine’s Defense Forces stopped the occupiers, who did not have the forces required to assault large cities.

ISW analysts on Dec. 3 and 4 observed several Russian military bloggers vaguely hinting that Russian forces are preparing offensive operations against Chernihiv.

ISW believes the Kremlin may start pushing this narrative more broadly as part of its coordinated cognitive warfare.

The report explained that Russia is trying to convince Ukraine and the West to capitulate to Russian demands that Moscow cannot achieve by military means.