Russia demands major Ukrainian cities while failing to capture them

At the latest U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia on Feb. 18, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed the idea of freezing the current front lines in Ukraine. Instead, he doubled down on Moscow’s claim that the entirety of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhya oblasts "belong" to Russia — despite the fact that Russian forces fully occupy none of them.

Lavrov also rejected any peace deal, allowing Western military aid to continue flowing to Ukraine, effectively repackaging Russia’s long-standing maximalist demands.

The Kremlin is using pseudo-legal justifications, despite the internationally recognized illegitimacy of Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territories, ISW added.

Russia demands what it cannot seize?

ISW analysts highlighted that Russia is demanding the surrender of multiple large cities that its military has failed to capture and currently has little chance of seizing, including:

• Kherson (pre-war population: 275,000)
• Kramatorsk (pre-war population: 147,000)
• Zaporizhzhya (pre-war population: 706,000).

Should Moscow succeed in invading these cities, Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis  escalates drastically, ISW warned, recalling all repressions, forced deportations, and violent assimilation tactics, that Russian authorities have resorted to since 2022.

Russia turns to diplomacy as its military stalls

Despite months of heavy assaults, Russian forces have failed to achieve significant territorial gains, suffering high equipment and personnel losses, ISW noted. The report suggests that Russia is unlikely to fully occupy these four oblasts through military means anytime soon — if ever.

As a result, Lavrov’s demands are a diplomatic attempt to secure what Russia cannot win on the battlefield.

"Moscow’s declared goal of capturing more Ukrainian land and people directly contradicts U.S. and European efforts for a sustainable peace and reinforces Russia’s ongoing illegal occupation instead of engaging in genuine negotiations or making any concessions," ISW concluded.

The analysts also stressed that Putin remains uninterested in meaningful peace talks, believing he can achieve his objectives militarily in the medium-to-long term. The Kremlin’s insistence on addressing the so-called 'root causes' of the war — which include undermining NATO and forcing Ukraine into full capitulation — further demonstrates Russia’s lack of intent to negotiate in good faith.

Meanwhile, Lavrov announced that U.S. and Russian officials will meet in Istanbul on Feb. 27, allegedly to discuss "removing obstacles to the functioning of diplomatic missions".