Russia likely using captured Ukrainian drones for provocations

The outlet's assessment is based on footage from a Ukrainian interceptor drone published by Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov, an adviser to Ukraine's president on defense technology development.

Commenting on the footage, Militarnyi's authors said the drone's silhouette — including the proportions of its straight wing and the shape of its fuselage — matches characteristics of Ukraine's FP-1 and FP-2 drone series.

To support this assessment, Militarnyi pointed to an incident in Moldova on June 8, when, during a massive Russian attack on Ukraine, a drone crossed into Moldovan territory and exploded near the village of Lopatna in Orhei district. Moldova's Foreign Ministry said the drone was very likely of Ukrainian origin, while Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said the drone was Russian.

The outlet also referenced a warning from Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, who said in July that Russia had captured a significant number of Ukrainian drones and could use them for "false flag" operations. He said such drones could be used for provocations against Poland and other NATO member states to create the impression of a Ukrainian attack and heighten political tension among allies.

Commenting on Militarnyi's assessment, Beskrestnov said the enemy is indeed collecting surviving Ukrainian drones, repairing them, and preparing them for future provocations.

"Does anyone really think the mysterious drones over Europe were (and will be) Supercams and Orlans with stars on their wings?" Beskrestnov wrote in a Telegram post, referring to Russian reconnaissance and targeting drone lines.

He said it is important for the international community to understand this dynamic, adding that this is how modern hybrid warfare unfolds.

The threat of Russian provocations

Col. Paweł Szota, head of Poland's Foreign Intelligence Agency, said publicly on June 28 that Russia was prepared to send "little green men" into Baltic states' territory. According to Szota, Russian President Vladimir Putin is currently a hostage to his own inability to declare victory, allowing Russia to continue fighting in Ukraine for several more years while simultaneously pursuing hybrid attacks against NATO's eastern flank.

Lithuania's Ministry of Defense offered a different assessment on June 29, telling Lithuanian broadcaster LRT that there were currently no objective signs that Russia was preparing a full-scale military attack on the Baltic states.

The British newspaper The Telegraph reported on July 3, citing sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki, that the United States had warned Warsaw that Moscow was preparing an armed provocation on Polish territory. According to the report, such actions could originate from Russia's Kaliningrad exclave or from Belarus and could range from missile and drone strikes to Russian troops crossing the border directly.

Political scientist Petro Oleshchuk said on Radio NV on July 4 that, according to U.S. intelligence, Russian provocations could begin within months. He said Poland is not yet fully prepared for such a scenario, arguing that Poles have been reluctant to fully absorb lessons from Ukraine's experience.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said on July 15 that Russia may be preparing a false-flag operation using Ukrainian drones.