In comments to the outlet, Claesson said NATO should be particularly vigilant and deter Russia in the North and in the Baltic Sea.
Military exercises have often simulated Russian amphibious landings on strategically important islands such as Sweden’s Gotland, Denmark’s Bornholm, or Estonia’s Hiiumaa and Saaremaa.
In September 2025, the Swedish Armed Forces and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency published a report that included a scenario in which Russia could attempt a rapid amphibious or airborne occupation of Gotland.
However, Micael Claesson noted that there are other, lesser-known islands that could become “tempting targets.”
“We have about 400,000 islands in the Baltic Sea, so it is only a matter of [Russia’s] choice,” Claesson said.
In his view, Russia could carry out a test operation — not necessarily large-scale — to see how the alliance would respond and what the political consequences would be.
Claesson also said that if the war in Ukraine ends, Russia will have the opportunity to regroup and reallocate resources on NATO’s eastern flank for a potential military operation.
“I also do not rule out that they [the Russians] will prepare for some form of military confrontation aimed at effectively restoring a kind of geopolitical expansion resembling the old Russian Empire, perhaps even the Soviet Union,” he said.
Incidents involving Russia have already occurred in the Baltic Sea. In late February, a Russian drone approached the French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle in the Swedish port of Malmö, where it had arrived for strategic exercises.
The drone was shot down by Swedish forces. Sweden’s Defense Ministry later confirmed it was a Russian UAV.