Ukraine pushes Russian forces back, no defense collapse on front predicted - ISW

Russian weekly gains have fluctuated significantly between late Nov. 2025 and mid-Feb. 2026.

• Jan. 25–31 (141 sq km captured).

• Feb. 8–14 (dropped to 74 sq km).

In Nov–Dec, Defense Forces liberated 106 sq km, reducing Russian advances toward Kharkiv, Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka. Notably, Ukraine retook most of Kupyansk and its outskirts in late December; Russia lost control of 305 sq km in that sector.

Analysts highlighted successful Ukrainian actions in Zaporizhzhya Oblast and on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported the liberation of settlements along the Yanchur and Haichur rivers:

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Oleksiivka, Orestopil, Danylivka, Vyshneve, Yehorivka, Zlahoda, and Rybne liberated.

Zaporizhzhya Oblast: Ternuvate, Kosivtseve, and Dobropillia liberated; fighting continues for Varvarivka.

Russian momentum toward Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole has practically stopped since Feb. 8.

In some narrow sectors, Ukrainian forces pushed Russians back 9–9.5 km.

ISW suggested Ukraine capitalized on Russia's recent loss of access to Starlink and following communication failures.

ISW clarified that these are counterattacks, not a full-scale counteroffensive. However, these tactical successes have complicated Russia's ability to prepare for a planned summer offensive on Orikhiv and the city of Zaporizhzhya from the east.