Russia escalates new Balkans destabilization campaign, promotes 'referendum' in Bosnia — ISW

Republika Srpska is one of two political entities that make up Bosnia and Herzegovina, the other being the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The entity has broad autonomy and is predominantly Serb in population. It has often been a center of pro-Russian sentiment and nationalist rhetoric.

Its long-time leader, Milorad Dodik, has become notorious for his open alignment with the Kremlin, repeated attempts to undermine Bosnia’s state institutions, and calls for greater Serb autonomy or even secession. He has met with Vladimir Putin multiple times and is widely seen as Moscow’s key ally in the Western Balkans.

Analysts believe this is likely part of a broader campaign to sow division and distract Europe.

On Sept. 9, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with Milorad Dodik, the suspended president of Republika Srpska. The meeting took place in Moscow and was followed by a press conference where Lavrov made several notable statements.

Lavrov highlighted the symbolic nature of their meeting, noting it occurred on the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Accords, which he described as having ended NATO's “aggression” in Bosnia. He claimed that Russia has been one of the guarantors of the agreement since December 1995, and accused the West of violating it in order to gain “undivided control” over Bosnia and strip Serbs of their rights.

Lavrov also condemned “foreign interference” in Bosnia and Herzegovina, saying Russia rejects Western attempts to remove “undesirable” Serb leaders.

ISW analysts clarified this may refer to the Bosnian court’s ruling against Dodik for defying the orders of the High Representative (the international official overseeing peace implementation in Bosnia) and ignoring Constitutional Court decisions.

Lavrov claimed that “destroying the consensus” that underpins Bosnia is essentially a crime, warning it could trigger another war in the Balkans.

He also expressed support for Dodik’s proposal to hold a “referendum” in Republika Srpska in October 2025. Lavrov sarcastically remarked that the West “doesn’t like referendums”, and called Russia’s fake 2014 referendum in the Crimea “transparent.”

The meeting between Lavrov and Dodik occurred the same day that Russia launched a major drone incursion into Polish airspace, which ISW believes was also intended to test NATO and EU unity.

ISW reminded that the Kremlin has long used its relationship with Republika Srpska to exert influence in the Balkans, stir division in Europe, and undermine the US-backed Dayton Accords, aiming to plunge the region back into chaos.

The political crisis in Republika Srpska

Milorad Dodik, the leader of the Bosnian Serbs, served as one of the three members of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s presidency — a collective body representing the highest office in the country. After the wars of the 1990s, the presidency consists of three members: one Serb (from Republika Srpska), one Croat, and one Bosniak (both from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina). These representatives serve four-year terms and reflect the country’s ethnic and religious divisions: Serbs are mostly Orthodox, Bosniaks are Muslim, and Croats are Catholic.

This complex structure is the result of the fragile compromise embedded in the Dayton Accords, signed in 1995 with support from international guarantors: the U.S., Germany, the UK, France, and Russia.

On Feb. 26, 2025, a Bosnian court found Dodik guilty of disobeying the High Representative and sentenced him to one year in prison.

On Aug. 1, the Appeals Court upheld the conviction. Dodik publicly stated that he will ignore the ruling.

On March 27, the court issued an international arrest warrant for Dodik on charges of threatening Bosnia’s constitutional order. Despite a domestic arrest order, Dodik crossed into neighboring Serbia and traveled to Moscow, where he met with Vladimir Putin.

On Aug. 6, the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina removed Dodik from office.

On Aug. 18, Dodik officially lost his presidential mandate after the court rejected his legal appeal. The CEC then scheduled early elections for the presidency of Republika Srpska for Nov. 23, 2025.