Russian forces lose initiative across most front sectors amid record October losses — ISW

As of analytical tracking, Russian forces lost more territory than they managed to seize for the second consecutive month — ceding 167.14 square kilometers while capturing only 139.85 square kilometers. This yielded a net Russian territorial loss of 27.29 square kilometers throughout October.

Over the past month, occupying forces achieved marginal advances strictly in Sumy and Zaporizhzhya oblasts, while suffering net territorial contractions across their primary operational focus in Donetsk Oblast.

In forward contest zones where Russian assault elements infiltrated without consolidating tactical control, Moscow suffered a net territorial loss of 76.38 square kilometers. Utilizing infiltration tactics, Russian units temporarily seized 10 settlements spanning a combined 5.86 square kilometers; however, Ukrainian forces liberated or cleared 11 settlements encompassing 3.24 square kilometers of Russian infiltration detachments.

The ISW also emphasized Russia's record monthly casualty rate in October, which exceeded 54k personnel. Coupled with a declining influx of contract recruits across Russia, this attrition explains the Kremlin’s tactical shift toward concentrated ballistic missile salvos against Ukrainian cities, designed to coerce Kyiv into capitulation.

"Casualty rates and territorial contractions accurately reflect the ground reality, where Russian forces have forfeited the operational initiative and offensive momentum across a substantial portion of the frontline," the ISW observed.

According to researchers, Russian forces retain marginal offensive initiative only in the Dobropillya sector of Donetsk Oblast. Conversely, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have seized the tactical initiative along the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Oleksandrivka axes, while aggressively contesting it in western Zaporizhzhya Oblast.

The ISW noted that Russian forces sustain pressure around Dobropillya solely due to extensive manpower commitments and assault tempo. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian forces have launched an average of roughly 30 assaults per day along this axis since Aug. 1, 2026. Limited gains here likewise stem from infiltration missions that fail to translate into durable territorial control.

At the same time, the aggressive offensive toward Dobropillya has failed to generate operational breakthroughs that will enable Moscow to achieve its goal of capturing the fortress cities of the Donbas before the spring of 2027, the ISW concluded. Analysts characterized the potential capture of the town as strategically purposeless for advancing toward other anchor cities in Oblast.

Operational forecasts indicate that completing the seizure of Dobropillya and mounting a subsequent advance against Kramatorsk from the west will demand immense manpower and materiel, dragging out over years if feasible at all.

The ISW also highlighted the cascading operational impact of Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi, which eliminated the Russian salient north and northwest of Lyman that was intended to serve as the launchpad for a northern encirclement of Slovyansk and adjacent Donbas hubs.

Reviewing key frontline sectors throughout October, the ISW noted that Russian forces have still failed to secure Kostiantynivka, where urban combat has dragged on for over a year following initial Russian penetration in October 2025.

Along the Huliaipole axis and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian command elements continued deploying motorized rifle and mechanized units as part of an operational framework targeting Orikhiv and ultimately Zaporizhzhya.

In northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, Russian forces conducted limited cross-border operations aimed at widening a "buffer zone," achieving only localized tactical gains. Ukrainian forces stabilized the perimeter across these sectors despite ongoing Russian official claims that grossly exaggerate battlefield progress.

The ISW assessed that the compounding effects of Ukraine’s offensive operations Vivaldi and Veles compelled Russian planners to deprioritize the Kupyansk and Borova directions. Russian command reallocated combat power from Kupyansk to reinforce the fracturing Lyman axis while attempting to parry Ukrainian counterattacks near Borova.

"Ukrainian successes in operations Vivaldi and Veles, alongside counterattacks along the Lyman, Kupyansk, and Borova axes, likely compelled Russian military leadership to largely abandon offensive efforts toward Kupyansk and Borova, where Russian troops failed to achieve territorial gains for several months," the ISW concluded.

Russian formations now lack the manpower reserves necessary to execute broad offensive maneuvers along the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast. Sustained Ukrainian pressure in these sectors will likely force Russian commanders to deploy additional operational reserves simply to stabilize their current defensive lines.