Russian satellite maneuvers dangerously close to vital source of Ukrainian intel

Ukrainian outlet Militarnyi reported the maneuvers on Oct. 19, citing data from satellitemap.space and Germany’s Bild.

At 2:06 a.m. UTC on Oct. 19, the Russian satellite was about 640 meters behind ICEYE-X36 and 2 kilometers higher. By 4:07 p.m. UTC, the distance between the satellites had narrowed to 26 meters.

According to Bild, calculations by the Orbital Radar platform showed that the satellites were 578 meters apart at an altitude of about 547 kilometers (340 miles) above Earth during the night of Oct. 17-18. Dutch researcher Marco Langbroek also recorded a series of maneuvers by the Russian satellite that gradually brought it closer to ICEYE-X36.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Kosmos-2612 began maneuvering in late September to enter the same orbital plane as the ICEYE satellite and approach its altitude. On Oct. 12, the Russian spacecraft changed its velocity by about 27.9 meters per second, adjusting its orbit to an altitude of about 555 kilometers (345 miles).

Kosmos-2612 is currently at an altitude of 557.5 kilometers (346.4 miles), while ICEYE-X36 is at 554.7 kilometers (344.7 miles). Such maneuvers require significant amounts of fuel. Once the satellites are in the same orbital plane, however, further approaches require fewer resources. This could allow one spacecraft to closely observe the other, study its design or potentially interfere with its operation.

Michael Bonert, an analyst at the U.S. think tank RAND, described Russia’s actions as a show of force intended to demonstrate its potential ability to attack Western satellites.

Russia has repeatedly said that commercial satellites assisting Ukraine could be considered potential military targets. However, there is currently no evidence that Kosmos-2612 is preparing to directly attack ICEYE-X36, Bild noted.