Russia’s 2022 draftees forced into endless military service under threat

The report, citing Russian Verstka media outlet, said that although the contracts given to Russian soldiers have official expiration dates, they can be extended indefinitely. Those who refuse to sign face threats of being sent to the front lines, where the survival rate is reportedly only 10–15%.

According to intelligence analysts, Russia's efforts to force conscripts into signing these contracts are partially driven by the lack of experienced troops. Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has suffered approximately 860,000 casualties (killed and wounded), significantly depleting its ranks of soldiers with even basic training.

Russian leadership likely views this approach as a way to avoid further unpopular mobilization efforts, which have led to mass emigration. Following Vladimir Putin’s announcement of partial mobilization in 2022, hundreds of thousands of Russians fled the country, exacerbating long-term labor shortages in Russia.

Russia’s war losses in Ukraine 

• On Feb, 20, Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Russia lost approximately 1,280 soldiers in a single day.
• Since the start of the full-scale invasion, total Russian losses have reached 864,860 personnel.
• The Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported in early January 2025 that the Ukrainian Armed Forces eliminated 430,790 Russian troops in 2024 alone — the equivalent of nearly 36 Russian motorized rifle divisions.
• On Feb. 3, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry reported that Russia’s irrecoverable and medical losses in January 2025 totaled 48,240 soldiers.
• On Feb. 4, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russia was struggling to recruit enough new soldiers, as monthly recruitment levels barely match or fall below battlefield losses.
• On Feb. 15, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at the Munich Security Conference that Putin had lost nearly 250,000 soldiers in Ukraine, with an additional 610,000 wounded.

Russia’s manpower crisis

• ISW previously noted that Russia’s recruitment and training system is overwhelmed, leading to lower-quality troops being sent to the front.
• Reports indicated that Russia was struggling to maintain its invasion force without further waves of mobilization, which remains deeply unpopular among the Russian population.
• Intelligence suggested that Russia’s troop replenishment efforts are unsustainable, forcing its military to resort to coercion and indefinite contracts for mobilized soldiers.