Russia struggles to hold gains near Dobropillia — ISW

In its latest daily report, ISW highlighted Russian troops continued attempts to infiltrate Ukrainian defensive positions east and northeast of Dobropillia using small sabotage and reconnaissance groups. The report included official statements from the Ukrainian General Staff, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the Dnipro Operational-Strategic Group, comparing them to Russian “milblogger” accounts. Analysts stressed that Russian forces have not yet managed to deploy reinforcements to consolidate their position, and they will likely face obstacles in trying to do so.

For their advance toward Dobropillia, Russian forces used small assault groups to penetrate the near rear of Ukrainian defenses, seeking weak points. These groups typically await reinforcement before attempting to consolidate their gains. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources describe these small groups as hiding in basements, tree lines, and wooded areas in the area. While this infiltration represents a deeper and faster advance than recent Russian efforts, ISW questions Russia’s ability to turn it into an operational breakthrough.

Since late 2024, Ukrainian forces have effectively used drones to block significant Russian advances in the Pokrovsk sector. ISW believes Ukraine will likely be able to hinder Russia’s reinforcement and consolidation in the new positions. Russian troops will also have to contend with incoming Ukrainian reinforcements in the area.

Even Russian milbloggers — often inclined to exaggerate Moscow’s gains — have voiced doubts about the sustainability of this advance. Some warned on Aug. 12 that Russian forces had not yet secured their positions and that this was not yet a full-scale breakthrough.

A former Storm-Z instructor noted the “fragmented” nature of this advance and the risk to the Russian flanks. Another milblogger stressed that the operation had overextended the frontline and could only succeed if Moscow committed enough troops to introduce operational reserves in a timely and coordinated manner.

Russian sources also acknowledged that the infiltrating teams could only be resupplied by drones, with main forces unable to support them directly. One source suggested that Russian troops might soon attempt a larger assault to prevent Ukrainian forces from regaining the tactical initiative. The Ukrainian Bakhmut Demon channel reported that the Defense Forces had already destroyed several Russian groups in these areas and were gradually pushing the remaining forces back.

ISW emphasized that the Russian penetration near Dobropillia was months in the making, preceded by extensive preparations and new drone tactics. Russia’s updated combined use of strike and reconnaissance UAVs has contributed to its recent advances toward key Ukrainian cities, enabling “battlefield air interdiction” — striking Ukrainian rear-area forces and logistics before they reach the front.

One Russian milblogger claimed that near Dobropillia, Russian forces “systematically” destroyed Ukrainian drone crews and took control of logistics routes northwest of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Another said that Russian infantry infiltrated Ukrainian rear positions via pre-scouted routes. ISW warned that the real concern is not only the small-unit infiltration tactic but also Russia’s drone innovations, which allow it to strike Ukrainian rear units and disrupt logistics preemptively.

ISW noted that these latest gains in the Pokrovsk sector come after more than 17 months of sustained Russian efforts to wear down Ukrainian forces in the area. Russian troops have been fighting here since February 2024, advancing west from Avdiivka. Even with the recent movement near Zolotyi Kolodiaz (close to Dobropillia), they have advanced only 55 km in depth over the past 17 months—losing over five divisions’ worth of armored vehicles and tanks in the process.

Russian officials at the same time are already trying to use this penetration for political leverage ahead of a planned U.S.–Russia summit in Alaska. ISW concluded that the Kremlin’s strategic goal remains breaking the will of Ukraine, the US, and Europe, forcing Ukraine’s full capitulation.

Situation near Dobropillia and in the Pokrovsk sector

On Aug. 11, former chief of staff of the named after Hero of Ukraine 12th Azov Special Purpose Brigade Bohdan Krotevych, known by the call sign Tavr, appealed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with a warning about the extremely difficult combat situation along the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka line.

“There is no fixed line of contact as such. (…) Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are almost encircled. Kostiantynivka is in a semi-encirclement. The enemy is moving toward Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka,” he wrote on his account on the X social media platform.

Even before his warning, analysts from DeepState reported that Russian occupation forces were actively advancing in the Dobropillia area in Donetsk Oblast. They suggested that if Russian troops complete their force build-up and entrench in these areas, they will prepare for a deeper push into Ukrainian territory. The occupiers would also bring in drone crews, making it harder for Ukrainian forces to reorganize alternative logistics and hold surrounding positions.

Representatives of the Dnipro Operational-Strategic Group commented on the situation in the Dobropillia and Pokrovsk sectors. They said that Russian forces, while suffering heavy personnel losses, are trying to slip small groups past Ukraine’s first defensive line.

Near Dobropillia, Russian troops attacked with small infantry groups supported by artillery and glide bombs, said National Guard officer Maksym Bakulin on Aug. 12.

Ukrainian General Staff data indicated that Russia has concentrated 110k+ troops in the Pokrovsk sector. To breach Ukraine’s defenses, they are using sabotage and small-unit tactics despite high casualties.

Ukrainian units are engaged in fierce defensive battles, and measures have been planned to block Russian groups, the General Staff confirmed.