Strike on Bryansk plant disrupts Russia’s Izdeliye-30 engine program — expert

He said he was satisfied with the destruction of the Kremniy El plant — particularly its workshops — as well as with the disruption of several important Russian missile programs.

Because, as he noted, it is one thing to count how many “gifts of British democracy” struck the Russian defense industry, and another to measure the effect achieved.

The effect created yesterday by the forces and means involved — including the 413th Raid Regiment — was significant. He stressed that this was not about a single aircraft carrying out the strike. Operations of this scale require exceptional operational planning and the involvement of a large number of personnel. He noted a paradox often overlooked: drone warfare requires even greater human involvement than conventional warfare.

According to him, the results resembled “the Kursk operation in the air.”

Such a scale of attack, he said, likely made Russia realize that further strikes would follow and may have disrupted the timeline for implementing the newest cruise missile program, known as “Izdeliye-30.”

“You know, six missiles hitting the plant — whether it was six or ten is a minor detail. Let’s look at the effect: it was like a Kursk operation, but in the air, after which the Russians finally seem to have understood what they have gotten themselves into,” he said.

He also suggested considering the psychological effect on Russia. Early last year, a strike targeted a facility in Russia’s Rostov region about 150 kilometers from the state border that produced solid rocket fuel for Iskander missiles. At the time, he said, the impact on Russia appeared limited.

Now, however, the strike occurred at least 300 kilometers deep inside Russian territory and was adjusted in real time, making the impact far more significant.

He added that organizing such operations requires exceptional operational skill. The scale and precision of the strike were not due to weaknesses in Russian air defenses, which he described as strong given the forces and resources available.

Instead, he said, the planners and participants of the operation — including those at the level of the Raid unit — managed to find ways to bypass Russian air defenses and strike the plant effectively, while also sending a signal that the destruction of factories may not be the only consequence Russia faces.