Moscow's nuclear war games attempt to cover up its stalled offensive — ISW

More than 64k soldiers and about 7,800 pieces of military equipment — including 200+ missile launchers, 140+ aircraft, 73 surface ships, and 13 submarines — are participating in the nuclear drills. The exercises reportedly include the launch of ballistic and cruise missiles at training grounds within Russia.

Russian Defense Ministry also announced joint exercises with the Belarusian army, involving the use of Russian nuclear weapons deployed on Belarusian territory.

The ISW noted that Russia never scheduled nuclear exercises for May 19-21. Since 2022, the aggressor country has typically held its annual land and sea nuclear exercises in October. The last time Russian forces conducted snap nuclear drills was in the summer of 2024. Those exercises focused on non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons and were likely designed to influence Western political debates regarding the supply of long-range weapons to Ukraine, the analysis stated.

Amid the start of the exercises, the Kremlin reiterated its threats against NATO. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated that the likelihood of a direct clash between Russia and NATO with "catastrophic consequences" is growing. He cynically accused the alliance of nuclear provocations against Moscow and of "escalating rhetoric" regarding the Russian threat.

These accusations against NATO are an attempt to exert "reflexive control" over the West and weaken Europe's support for Ukraine, the ISW reported.

Analysts also pointed out that Russia's nuclear exercises are taking place amid stalled Russian spring-summer offensive on the front line in Ukraine, as well as highly effective deep strikes by Ukrainian Defense Forces into the aggressor country's rear.

On May 18, Belarusian Defense Ministry announced the start of "planned" exercises focused on the combat use of nuclear weapons. Russian Defense Ministry announced its own nuclear drills the following day.

On May 15, 2026, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Russia continues its attempts to drag Belarus directly into the war against Ukraine. Possible scenarios include aggressive operations against the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction in Ukraine or against a NATO member state.