According to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia’s state-owned Russian Public Opinion Research Centerintroduced a “combined sampling” system in May 2026, replacing its previous reliance on phone interviews.
Under the new approach, half of respondents are surveyed by phone, while the other half are questioned in person through door-to-door apartment visits.
Ukraine’s intelligence service said the timing of the change was not accidental.
Between late December and late April, Putin’s approval rating reportedly fell by 12.2 percentage points, marking the steepest decline since Russia’s controversial 2018 pension reform.
The agency said approval dropped to 65.6% during April 13–19 — the lowest level recorded since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since February 2022, the figure had generally remained within the 75%–80% range.
“The reaction was predictable,” Ukraine’s intelligence service said. “The center stopped publishing weekly ratings, unconvincingly citing the ‘May holidays’: May 8 was a regular working day in Russia, and last year the center calmly published data even on May 9. Polling continued — only the publication of the results stopped.”
After the methodology changes, Putin’s ratings began rising again, according to the agency. Between May 4–10, reported approval increased to 66.8%, while “trust” rose from 71% to 72.1%.
Ukraine’s intelligence service argued that telephone polling better captures frustration and dissatisfaction among respondents willing to speak candidly, while face-to-face apartment visits encourage displays of loyalty due to direct personal contact.
“In essence, all Russian ratings measure not Putin’s popularity, but the level of fear of telling the truth,” the agency said.
The statement also cited data from Levada Center published on May 7 showing declining public engagement with the war.
According to the poll, only 43% of Russians said they closely follow developments on the battlefield — the lowest level recorded since observations began. At the start of March 2022, that figure stood at 64%.
Support for the Russian military reportedly fell to 69%. Meanwhile, 62% of respondents favored peace negotiations, while only 27% supported continuing the war.
Ukraine’s intelligence service also linked the changes to what it described as Putin’s “public humiliation” surrounding Russia’s May 9 Victory Day parade.
“To ensure the parade took place, the Kremlin begged Washington to secure the event from possible Ukrainian strikes,” the agency claimed. “President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded by signing a decree allowing the show to proceed — the parade took place without equipment or dignity, but with unprecedented security measures and internet shutdowns. The event, intended to intimidate the world, occurred solely due to Ukraine’s goodwill.”
Earlier, the Russian Public Opinion Research Center reportedly recorded the strongest surge in public dissatisfaction with Putin’s domestic, foreign, and economic policies in eight years.