ISW pointed to statements made by U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Deputy State Secretary Jeremy Levin on June 24-25 suggesting a different view of the situation. They stated that Ukraine now has the battlefield advantage, which, according to analysts, refuted claims that Ukrainian forces are in a critical situation.
ISW highlighted a statement by Levin, who explained that Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russian oil infrastructure are increasing the cost of war for Russia and are forcing Russia to divert resources away from the frontlines.
Analysts noted that Russian officials are regularly exaggerating their tactical advances and spreading false claims as part of an information campaign designed to create the illusion of an inevitable Russian victory and persuade Ukraine and its partners to make concessions in negotiations.
Ukraine’s successful strikes against military targets and energy infrastructure in occupied Ukraine and Russia along with Ukrainian successes in several areas on the frontline in Winter and Spring 2026 are shattering the Russian false narrative.
The situation on the frontline
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry announced on June 26 that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had liberated twice as much territory as Russia managed to occupy during the same period. The ministry emphasized that, provided partners deliver adequate support, the current "window of opportunity" could significantly bring the war closer to its conclusion.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on June 24 that Ukraine’s operations, including efforts involving occupied Crimea, had been clearly calculated, adding that Kyiv will quickly create conditions in which Moscow will be forced to choose peace.
Zelenskyy announced on June 9 that the military situation is now the most favorable for Ukraine in the past two and a half years and that Russia is losing the initiative on the battlefield day by day.