Ukrainian aviator predicts Russia's Tu-22M bombers will run out of resources in 2-3 years

It’s important to understand that while Russia may have 60 aircraft, not all of them are operational at the same time.

For obvious reasons, it's nearly impossible to keep 100% of their aviation fleet in flying condition, as many planes are undergoing repairs.

I believe that despite ongoing operations, at least 70% of the remaining aircraft are still airworthy today.

However, we know the Russians are now using a limited number of aircraft, with their combat unit halved.

At times, they fly with just one missile. This indicates they are conserving their aircraft resources.

This is a positive sign for us, as various estimates suggested that Russia would exhaust their aircraft resources in two to three years. The Tu-22M3, in particular, is not a renewable resource — Russia no longer produces these planes or the engines for them.

They are operating on limited resources, and while they claim to conduct overhauls, doing so requires spare parts, engines, and financial means.

Within three years, I believe Russia will struggle significantly with resources, and only a few planes will be operational.