20 April, 11:01 AM
Using nukes would force the world to put an end to Putin’s regime
As it stands, there is no chance that Russia will manage to execute its operation in Donbas flawlessly, encircle Ukrainian troops there, and be in a position to dictate terms to Kyiv.
The way the battlefield is developing, the Donbas offensive threatens to backfire, dealing the Kremlin a staggering military defeat and shattering its army. The United States is very well aware of how the Russian army is armed and equipped, and what the situation with soldiers' morale is like.
We saw how accurate U.S. intelligence is, so it’s safe to assume they have a complete picture of the size and composition of the Russian forces near Izyum and in Zaporizhzhia. The affairs of the Ukrainian army are even more well-known to them, I assume.
If the balance of forces in the Donbas was really unfavorable to our side, the United States would be advising us to pull back.
In general, the Americans are very conservative and cautious when it comes to this war: their estimates and forecasts are extremely restrained, so as to not give false hope. They have always expressed the greatest admiration of Ukraine and its defenders: “Yes, Ukrainians are amazing in their resistance, but the forces are unequal, so Kyiv (will fall) in four days, Mariupol – in a week.”
Those very same analysts are silent now. They expect the battle to be hard-fought, but the ultimate outcome is uncertain. There’s no panic, no calls for a pullback. Basically, everyone is holding their breath, waiting for it all to start. And this battle will definitely begin, especially after the sinking of Moskva, and after the Kremlin's humiliating defeat at Kyiv.
Putin needs at least some kind of victory now; he has to be able to show his populace that Russia has seized the initiative and that everything is going as planned.
The Donbas offensive was massively hyped up by Russian state propaganda. Getting cold feet now would indicate a catastrophic media failure for the Kremlin, especially after having to retreat from Kyiv and pretend as if it was all planned.
Losing the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet could hardly be spun as another part of the master plan. Mobilization in the Donbas is scraping the bottom of the barrel.
According to Denis Kazansky, the Donetsk Philharmonic orchestra was sent to assault Mariupol. The musicians were lured to the military commissariat under false pretenses – invited to perform – and were then issued with derelict gear and sent to try and take the Azovstal plant.
Predictably, they all died there, being musicians with zero training or experience. It’s madness, of course.
Meanwhile, we’re in talks to acquire U.S.-made Reaper heavy drones – heavily armed, long-range UAVs. Looking at all the weapons flowing to Ukraine, Russia demanded that Czechia stop exporting Soviet-era weapons to Ukraine. The Czechs, predictably, told Moscow to go screw itself.
Then, the Kremlin threatened Washington with “unpredictable consequences” of militarizing Ukraine. The United States responded that such consequences are very much predictable: a Russian military defeat.
Russia’s initial plan was to quietly strangle its neighbor at night, but it turned out that the neighbor was awake and fought back, rather expertly, with the help of other people. Moscow isn’t used to fair combat, so this turn of events looks a breach of the rules of war to them.
In general, Russia is slowly getting desperate about how the war is going. Even those who became very wealthy thanks to Putin’s regime, are very discontented. Putin is bereft of support even among the country’s elites. It’s premature, however, to say that his rule is teetering. But, it’s undoubtedly much weaker than it was even two months ago.
I think Putin is weighing using of nuclear weapons to decisively end the war. It could conceivably help him; I’m not sure, but perhaps it could.
At the same time, it will be a sentence for him and all of his cronies. Using nukes would make even Chine do everything they can to get rid of a regime that is capable of something like that.
Considering all this, I expect that CIA and other intelligence services are working overtime now to prevent Putin from pressing the button.
Should those efforts fail, should he deploy nukes in Ukraine, his entire circle will be complicit and will have little chance of surviving the whole ordeal. The prospect of Putin getting removed, one way or another, by global intelligence services is looking more and more likely to me. Very likely indeed.