Lifting of long-range weapon restrictions possible only if Russia escalates attacks on Ukraine's energy system

Nation

17 October 2024, 03:03 PM

Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko explained the circumstances under which Ukraine might be permitted to use Western long-range weapons to strike Russian territory in an interview with Radio NV.

His statement comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented his victory plan to the Verkhovna Rada, which had been previously shared with international partners.

The second point focuses on defense against Russian invasion, calls for removing partner-imposed restrictions on the use of long-range weapons against all Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories and on Russian soil, targeting military infrastructure. 

"I can predict that, unfortunately, the situation with long-range weapons is unlikely to change in the near future," Fesenko said.

"However, should the war escalate and, God forbid, the Russians launch a new wave of destruction targeting Ukraine's energy system, I believe this could push the Americans and Europeans to lift these restrictions as a way to pressure Russia: 'You must stop this, or there will be strikes on your territory.'"

Zelenskyy Victory Plan and Long-Range Weaponry

Classified sections of the victory plan discuss the possibility of strikes on Russian territory and outline the types of weapons that may be needed for this, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the President’s Office, commented.

He further noted that these measures would involve destroying the logistics routes of the occupiers and key enemy targets, including troop concentrations.

Ongoing discussions on the use of long-range missiles against Russia

On Sept. 11, during U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Kyiv, he did not announce a decision to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with ATACMS missiles but confirmed that the issue had been discussed, and he would take the feedback back to Washington.

On Sept. 12, Politico reported that the White House was finalizing plans to ease some restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S.-supplied weapons. The Times also reported that U.S. President Joe Biden might authorize strikes on Russian territory using British long-range Storm Shadow missiles. However, The New York Times indicated on Sept. 13 that while Biden had made a decision regarding Storm Shadow missiles, he remained hesitant about ATACMS.

Bloomberg, citing unnamed European and U.S. officials, warned that Russia might intensify hybrid attacks on NATO countries if the U.S. and Europe authorize Ukraine to use long-range weapons against Russia.

On Sept. 14, The Guardian, referencing sources, reported that the U.S. and the U.K. had agreed to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike Russia, though they were not yet ready to make a formal announcement.

On Sept. 15, it was revealed that five former British defense ministers and ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged Prime Minister Keir Starmer to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles against Russia, even without U.S. support.

On Oct. 3, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that NATO members would discuss the issue of granting Ukraine permission to strike Russian territory with Western long-range missiles with President Biden at the upcoming Ramstein format meeting on Oct. 12.

However, Biden postponed his trip to Germany, where he was to lead this critical meeting for Ukraine, due to Hurricane Milton. Consequently, the Ramstein meeting was also delayed.

On Oct. 13, it was reported that the Ramstein meeting will not take place, and Biden's rescheduled visit to Germany would follow a shortened agenda.

On Oct. 16, the White House announced that the postponed Ramstein-format meeting would take place next month.

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