Trilateral talks were tentatively eyed for the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' summit on Nov. 18–19. The Chinese side has insisted on a tightly scripted protocol: each of the three leaders will read an approved statement, with zero or minimal latitude for unchoreographed discussion. In contrast, the Trump administration has pressed for a free-form exchange of views.
A Chinese official informed the WSJ that Beijing is prepared to host the trilateral meeting provided prior diplomatic legwork delivers an agreed agenda and a "predetermined outcome." Under those controlled terms, China would be willing to address Ukraine alongside other matters; otherwise, Beijing would favor separate bilateral encounters.
Nuclear arms control has surfaced as another major point of friction. Trump has signaled intent to raise "many issues, including denuclearization," alongside Putin and Xi. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio similarly characterized the prospective gathering as an opening to address arms control at the summit level among the three nuclear-armed states.
However, a Chinese official stated to the WSJ that Beijing will not consent to trilateral talks on nuclear weapons. According to the report, China fears formalizing an arrangement that locks in parity caps while its nuclear arsenal remains smaller than those of the United States and Russia. Meanwhile, Washington maintains that any modern strategic arms framework must incorporate Beijing.
A senior U.S. administration official assessed that Xi is unwilling to engage in open dialogue absent a pre-negotiated script. Sources close to Beijing's decision-making apparatus attributed the Chinese leader's caution to a desire to reap the public-relations upside of a great-power summit — joint imagery, formal communiqués, and domestic propaganda value — while eliminating the political downside of an unpredictable debate.
Those sources added that the aversion to risk is amplified by preparations for high-level personnel rotations ahead of the 21st National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in late 2027.
"I think for Xi this is very high risk and highly unpredictable," said Kurt Campbell, former U.S. deputy secretary of state and chairman of The Asia Group consultancy. In Campbell's view, Beijing would rather manage its ties with Washington and Moscow bilaterally, leveraging each relationship to extract isolated concessions.
On Nov. 8, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Moscow, Washington, and Beijing were exchanging draft proposals regarding the agenda for a prospective leaders' meeting. Peskov noted that certain agenda items favored by one party remain unacceptable to another, emphasizing that consensus remains a prerequisite for the summit to proceed.