Ukraine’s counteroffensive has already started - opinion
Bakhmut (Photo:Social Media. @combat.art.ukraine via Instagram/via REUTERS)
Military expert and reserve Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Roman Svitan, spoke to Radio NV about why Western media reported on a supposed April 30th Ukrainian offensive and what the signs are that it has already begun.
April 30 is just a culmination point. The information that was transmitted was most likely divided by months into January, February, March, and April, such that “by April 30, this number [of troops] will be prepared.” But this is not the beginning of the offensive as such. It's just a cut off number. The media could somehow have reported this as, perhaps, the final figure of preparted forces, and then they could have interpreted it as the beginning of an offensive.
The attack has already begun. It's been going on for about a week now, since perhaps a few days before Easter.
The weather is good, dry, the sun has already risen, and it is windy. Tanks are already able to move.
We are already trying to identify certain directions for further movement.
Our troops have already begun reconnaissance in force along the entire front line to probe for where we can move.
On the Luhansk front, and [in the area] of Kremennaya, Svatove, Orikhiv district, Hulyaipole, and Vuhledar district, our troops are already beginning to probe the line of defense with reconnaissance in force.
On the Kherson front, a certain artillery preparation is being carried out in the area of Nova Kakhovka, Oleshky, and the Kinburn Spit. We have already begun operations.
This is even the case in the Avdiivka area. The Russians are now beginning to retreat to their initial lines at some positions in the Avdiivka area, and our troops are beginning to move.
It's still difficult around Bakhmut. The Russians have real superiority there, especially in aviation. Still, they are trying to wipe Bakhmut off the face of the earth: if you do not squeeze out the Ukrainian garrison, then at least destroy the fortifications themselves, which are high-rise buildings.
The picture is the same in the Bilohorivka area. We are already trying to identify certain directions for further movement. Bilohorivka is in the direction of Lysychansk.
The movement has already begun. It will not be like in the old days, where they would determine at such and such a time and in such and such region, everyone will advance.” It will all be a little different.
First comes the destruction of the deep rear. We hear about how in Mariupol, Melitopol, Polohy, Tokmak, Berdyansk, Chernihivka, our long-range weapons are working. Naturally, after carrying out certain measures after reconnaissance in force, the direction of movement will be roughly determined, and the advance itself will be adjusted. There will also be a transfer of reserves. This is a whole process that has already started. All these wheels are already spinning.
I think that we will start seeing results closer to May 6th. It is not just that [there will be] the coronation of the king [of Great Britain]. The “highlight” of the handover of the British Challengers is massive.
Naturally, according to the plans of our commander in chief, the advance will begin. Everything will depend on that decision. The decision that is made will be implemented. The [offensive] no longer depends much on the weather, as the sun has already risen, and the “green” has gone. Even if it rains, [the water] will dry up very quickly. The weather no longer affects the start of the advance , but it has already begun. Within a week or two, by May 6, let's see [what happens], there is a little bit left.
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