analysis

Crimea to face dark, cold winter after Ukrainian strikes

Occupied Crimea now has only one major operational element left in its overall power system after a sustained campaign of Ukrainian airstrikes, according to an NV analysis published on Aug. 29.

31 August, 04:10 PM

Putin's security obsession reaches new extremes after 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin's obsession with his own security has reached new extremes in recent years. Secrecy surrounding him has become so intense that journalists have at times assessed how much plants in his office had wilted in order to determine when meetings shown by the Kremlin actually took place, The New York Times reported on Aug. 12.

13 August, 02:15 PM

DM Fedorov faces pushback from generals over Defense Ministry reforms

Ukraine's Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov is facing sharp resistance from military leadership over his reform efforts, despite progress in advancing drone technology and digitizing the armed forces, The Economist reported on July 13.

15 July, 04:13 PM

Ukrainian drone strikes are doing more than isolating Crimea from supplies — NV analysis

Ukraine’s campaign of drone strikes is not only isolating occupied Crimea from key supply routes, but also threatening Russia’s broader military position across southern Ukraine, potentially making logistical disruption the decisive factor of the summer campaign, according to an NV analysis on June 29, which cites military experts.

30 June, 04:20 PM

Defense Express explains Moscow's likely response to drone strike

Russia is likely to reinforce Moscow's air defenses after a major Ukrainian drone attack on the capital, potentially weakening protection in other oblasts and increasing their vulnerability, Defense Express reported on June 18.

18 June, 02:39 PM

Putin admits some Russian frontline failures – ISW

Vladimir Putin has begun publicly acknowledging some battlefield setbacks in Ukraine in an apparent effort to appear better informed about frontline realities, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment on June 13.

13 June, 01:36 PM

ISW says Russia used ceasefire to reinforce positions

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued conducting offensive operations across the frontline during the first day of the May 9-11 ceasefire, although the intensity of fighting decreased, the Institute for the Study of War said in an assessment published on May 9.

10 May, 09:30 AM

Ukraine fuel prices climb amid global oil turmoil — analysis

War in the Middle East has disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, rattling global energy markets and driving fuel prices higher in Ukraine, where motorists have seen prices rise by 6–10 hryvnias per liter.

10 March, 02:19 PM

Kremlin turns war in Ukraine into systemic abuse of its own people

“Bunker Putin”, “cannibal commanders,” “disposable mercenaries” — Russian social media vocabulary is becoming increasingly anti-war, just like public sentiment, researcher Liubov Tsybulska said in an interview with NV on Jan. 16.

16 January, 08:30 AM

Russia’s Oreshnik strike was rather demonstration, than real damage - Ukrainian analyst

Oreshnik ballistic missile launch against Ukraine was purely demonstrative, while the Kremlin continues its strategy of blackouts and deliberate peace talks delays, Vadym Denysenko, Business Capital analytical center head, said on Jan. 9.

9 January, 11:34 AM

Europe abandoned its defenses in 2025 — and 2026 could be even more catastrophic

Europe has placed itself in a dangerously vulnerable position, lacking a serious security strategy, showing weakness on Ukraine, and becoming increasingly dependent on U.S. President Donald Trump. But worse may lie ahead, Francis Dearnley, a columnist for the British outlet The Telegraph, wrote on Dec. 26.

26 December 2025, 01:08 PM

Kremlin plans Shahed boat launcher that Ukraine can jam, track and sink

Russia is developing a sea-based drone designed to launch Shahed-type UAVs, but the platform would have little practical value for strikes against Ukraine, military outlet Defense Express (DE) wrote on Nov. 18.

18 November 2025, 01:26 PM

Russia inflates battlefield gains to push ‘inevitable victory’ narrative — ISW

Russia is inflating its battlefield gains in Ukraine — in some cases by more than double — to push a narrative of “inevitable victory” and pressure the West, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Sept 25.

26 September 2025, 10:08 AM

Putin surrounds himself with aging generals, shutting out younger voices

Russia is turning into a regime where the younger generation has no influence, as Kremlin rule now dominated by old guard, The Times wrote on Sept. 14.

15 September 2025, 08:05 AM

Russia grows bolder in provoking NATO defenses - ISW

Russia likely launched drones into Polish airspace to test NATO’s response and gather intelligence for future conflicts with the West, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Sept. 10.

11 September 2025, 08:44 AM

Russia prepares for renewed assaults in Kherson Oblast

Russia is likely preparing for offensive operations in priority areas of the front line and limited offensive actions in southern Ukraine, particularly in Kherson Oblast, The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Aug. 13.

14 August 2025, 10:59 AM

Putin’s fanatical resolve: Russia’s refusal to end war costs it regional influence and energy markets

Analysts say Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s refusal to compromise on Ukraine is a colossal blunder that’s costing Russia its regional influence, lucrative energy markets, and place in the global order, The Washington Post reported on July 19.

20 July 2025, 08:14 PM

JPMorgan Chase predicts Ukraine ceasefire in 2025, outlines four possible scenarios

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest bank in the United States, has published a geopolitical analysis on Russia’s war against Ukraine, predicting that a ceasefire agreement could be reached in 2025. The report was prepared by the firm’s newly established Center for Geopolitics.

24 May 2025, 02:30 PM

Kremlin’s demands make meaningful Ukraine-Russia talks impossible despite Trump’s optimism — ISW

Substantive Ukraine-Russian peace talks are impossible for now as Kremlin stalls negotiation process, escalates demands, and rejects of Ukraine’s government legitimacy, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on May 19.

20 May 2025, 10:30 AM

Russian forces intensify attacks near Toretsk and Pokrovsk — DeepState

The Russian forces advanced within the city limits of Toretsk and near several settlements along the Pokrovsk axis in Donetsk Oblast overnight, DeepState monitoring group wrote on May 13.

13 May 2025, 10:20 AM

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