ISW says Russia used ceasefire to reinforce positions
Ukrainian military equipment at the front (Photo: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Russian and Ukrainian forces continued conducting offensive operations across the frontline during the first day of the May 9-11 ceasefire, although the intensity of fighting decreased, the Institute for the Study of War said in an assessment published on May 9.
Ukraine’s General Staff reported 51 combat engagements along the frontline on May 9. Russian forces also continued strikes against Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson Oblast.
Meanwhile, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed Ukrainian forces had allegedly committed 8,970 “ceasefire violations.”
Reports from Ukraine and Russia, as well as data from NASA monitoring systems, indicate that combat activity on May 9 — particularly in northern Ukraine — declined but did not stop completely, ISW said.
The think tank noted that the ceasefire lacked clearly defined conditions. The only publicly known detail was that Ukraine would refrain from striking Red Square during the Victory Day parade, a condition Kyiv upheld, analysts said.
ISW added that mutual accusations and continued localized fighting on May 9 demonstrate that any ceasefire without clear mechanisms, reliable third-party monitoring, established dispute resolution procedures, and troop withdrawals from contact lines is unlikely to be sustainable.
The institute also reported that Russian forces used the ceasefire period to conduct rotations, reinforce units, redeploy personnel, and improve logistics across the frontline in preparation for future offensives.
Ukrainian military sources said on May 9 that Russian troops strengthened positions along the Kupiansk, Lyman, and Sloviansk directions, as well as in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Ukraine’s 7th Rapid Response Corps also reported that units of Russia’s 90th Guards Tank Division had been redeployed toward the Pokrovsk direction.
The ceasefire also reportedly allowed Russian forces to consolidate positions northwest of Lyman in areas where Ukrainian drone activity had previously hindered Russian advances.
ISW analysts believe Russian forces will likely continue regrouping and reinforcing positions on May 10 and 11, using the reduced intensity of combat to prepare for renewed offensive operations after the three-day ceasefire ends.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced the May 9-11 ceasefire on May 8 following a series of Russian threats to launch massive strikes on Kyiv and successful Ukrainian attacks against targets deep inside Russia.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later confirmed the ceasefire agreement, which was reached through U.S. mediation, and announced plans for a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange.
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