Ukrainian officer predicts brutal civil war over revolution in Russia

Illienko dismissed the idea of a Ukrainian-style Maidan taking place in Moscow.

"I don’t believe in any revolution, and certainly not a Maidan in Russia. Simply because [they are not us]... A Revolution of Dignity is impossible in Russia because they have no dignity," Illienko said bluntly.

The cycle of Russian blood

While a principled uprising is off the table, the officer noted that Russia’s history is defined by periodic, violent internal collapses — the so-called "Smuta" (Time of Troubles).

"If we look at history, they regularly have these phenomena..." he said.

"The 'senseless and merciless Russian riot.' They regularly face civil war."

He pointed to the 20th century and the 1990s as prime examples of Russians turning on their own.

"Remember how they shot at each other from tanks in the '90s? In Moscow, they fired tanks at their own so-called parliament."

Illienko suggested that a new civil war could be ignited by the toxic combination of economic collapse, general exhaustion, and catastrophic losses in the war against Ukraine.

This grim forecast aligns with earlier warnings from political expert Taras Zahorodnii, who noted in March 2024 that every major Russian oligarchic group is frantically building its own private military company.

"They understand that times of 'Smuta' are coming," Zahorodnii remarked, suggesting that any attempt by the Kremlin to nationalize oligarchic property could pull the trigger on domestic conflict.

Even the Kremlin has acknowledged this looming shadow.

On June 27, 2023, following the failed mutiny by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, dictator Vladimir Putin claimed that his armed forces had "succeeded" in stopping what would have effectively been a civil war.