Russia unable to mount rapid breakthrough even if Kostyantynivka falls — ISW

Ongoing Russian tactical advances within and around Kostyantynivka do not establish the necessary conditions for a rapid operational breakthrough across the rest of Ukraine’s "fortress belt" or the complete capture of Donetsk Oblast, even in the event of the city's total occupation.

ISW analysts noted that while Russian units continue infiltrating Kostyantynivka and its immediate outskirts using small infantry fireteams, the Russian military’s main forces have not entered the greater part of the city to consolidate and fortify these positions.

According to military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets, Ukrainian forces maintain established defensive positions across the northern and northwestern sectors of Kostyantynivka, while primary Ukrainian units in the southeastern sector withdrew to the eastern bank of the Kryvyi Torets River. Individual Ukrainian fighters continue operating within the central and southeastern quarters of the urban area, Mashovets added.

He also reported Russian tactical infiltrations north and southwest of Kostyantynivka, which likely represent attempts to bypass Ukrainian fortified strongpoints. According to his analysis, Russian troops seized Illinivka, are operating northwest of Stepanivka, and have advanced north of the Dovha Balka–Illinivka road.

The ISW reiterated that the Kremlin has consistently framed the seizure of Kostyantynivka as an indispensable operational stepping stone for subsequent offensive operations targeting the Slovyansk–Druzhkivka–Kramatorsk urban agglomeration and the complete occupation of Donetsk Oblast.

Frontline Situation in Kostyantynivka

In May 2026, reports revealed that senior Russian military commanders convinced Russian dictator Vladimir Putin that invading forces could capture Donbas Oblast entirely by autumn 2026. That timeline has since been extended to the end of the year.

On July 3, Putin convened a meeting with Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and other senior commanders, publicly asserting the capture of Kostyantynivka, the complete "liberation" of Luhansk Oblast, and "significant advances" across Donetsk Oblast.

On Aug. 5, DeepState co-founder and battlefield analyst Roman Pohorilyi stated in an interview with Radio NV that Ukrainian Defense Forces were losing ground in Kostyantynivka, warning that defensive pressures were cascading across the wider Kramatorsk–Slovyansk urban conglomerate.