Ukrainian systemic UAV strikes degrade Russian combat capabilities - ISW

Ukrainian drone units are increasingly focusing on successful strikes against Russian artillery, drone operators, and logistics facilities in the near rear to achieve specific results on the battlefield, the analysts noted.

The focus has shifted: strikes are now primarily aimed at artillery, UAV operators, supply routes, and enemy force concentration areas rather than infantry, according to a planning staff representative from a Ukrainian drone battalion in the Lyman direction. This has led to a decrease in the number of Russian attacks and allowed Ukrainian troops to achieve local successes, the ISW emphasized.

Regular strikes on communications equipment, particularly antennas, negatively affect the morale of the Russian military and complicate coordination on the front line, the analysts added.

Ukraine's short-range strikes on Russia's tactical rear are gradually weakening both the offensive and defensive capabilities of the occupiers, helping Ukrainian forces advance while simultaneously complicating Russian artillery preparations for a spring and summer offensive in 2026.

The number of Ukrainian strikes at a distance of 50 to 250 kilometers from the front line has increased significantly: from about 11 per month between March and October 2025 to about 45 after November 2025. In total, 365 strikes were carried out from March 2025 to early March 2026, with a third of them occurring in just the last three months.

These attacks were aimed at elements of the Russian air defense system — radars, launchers, and other components — in almost half the cases. Ukrainian forces are actively using domestically produced drones with a range of up to 250 kilometers, which have partially replaced the role of HIMARS systems, and have also significantly increased the use of long-range FP-2 drones, the ISW highlighted.

The consistent destruction of Russian air defenses opens up opportunities for further strikes on critical targets deep in the rear, expanding Ukraine's operational capabilities, the analysts stressed. As a result, the Russian command is forced to solve several complex tasks at once, which likely complicates preparations for an offensive, the ISW stated.

Overall, the inability of Russian troops to advance even at the tactical level and take advantageous positions in the areas of Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka seriously undermines their chances of achieving significant results during the expected offensive in 2026, the analysts added.

Russian troops have begun artillery and drone preparations for a spring-summer offensive on the fortress cities of the Donbas, which could become a multi-year operation with heavy losses for the Kremlin, the ISW reported on Feb. 27.

Specifically, Russian units are amassing reinforcements in the area of Slovyansk and shelling the suburbs in preparation for a ground assault on key Ukrainian defensive positions, the analysts underscored.