Russia eyes new wave of strikes on Ukraine after 'energy ceasefire' ends - ISW

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently claimed that no formal agreement exists for a temporary ceasefire, when asked by Russian media about the alleged moratorium on strikes against energy facilities and in the Black Sea.

At the same time, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the Kremlin would clarify the end date of the 30-day energy ceasefire with the Russian Defense Ministry, adding that “everything will depend on further orders” from dictator Vladimir Putin.

ISW highlighted that since March 18, Russian authorities have been consistently and groundlessly accusing Ukraine of violating the so-called energy ceasefire.

Analysts believe that Russian forces may ramp up strikes on Ukraine in the coming days, as the "ceasefire" appears to be nearing its end. However, the exact parameters of this so-called agreement, including its end date, remain unclear.

Lavrov also repeated that Putin rejected U.S. President Donald Trump's proposal for a 30-day full ceasefire, citing alleged unresolved issues related to Ukraine’s mobilization, military aid, and ceasefire monitoring. As usual, he attempted to shift blame onto Ukraine, claiming it “likes to lie.”

ISW noted that Russia's repeated baseless accusations that Ukraine is violating the agreement — without presenting evidence — are being used by the Kremlin to justify backing away from the idea of a comprehensive ceasefire.

'Energy ceasefire' violations 

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry earlier said that the ceasefire on attacks against energy infrastructure began on March 25, while Russia’s version claiming March 18 as the start date is fabricated.

On April 1, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov falsely claimed that Ukraine had violated the energy ceasefire agreement and that Russia had informed the U.S., OSCE, and UN.

Ukraine’s General Staff denied Russian disinformation about alleged Ukrainian strikes on energy facilities in Russia or occupied Ukrainian territories. Ukraine’s Defense Forces adhere to the energy ceasefire agreements and target only Russian military objectives.

Nevertheless, Russia continues to attack energy infrastructure in Kherson, Poltava, Donetsk, and other Ukraine's oblasts.

On April 10, Yuriy Boyko, an advisor to the Ukrainian Prime Minister and member of the supervisory board of Ukrenergo, said that Russian forces had stopped striking critical energy facilities after March 24 but continued to attack frontline infrastructure.

On April 15, Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation reported that during the 22 days of the “energy ceasefire,” Russia killed nearly 2.5 times more Ukrainians than during the same period prior to its announcement.