The Kremlin's first scenario envisions continuing the war until at least 2028, he noted. Russians are banking on this year's spring-summer assault attempt, Kovalenko added. The scenario of a war lasting until 2028 is unrealistic without future mobilization in Russia.
The second scenario is a "drift" toward a ceasefire and freezing the war, CCD believes.
"Russian propagandists are already shaping a narrative for this, portraying [Russian dictator Vladimir] Putin as poorly informed about the front-line situation and claiming the war 'reached a dead end due to the actions of generals who lied,'" Kovalenko stated.
The third scenario involves continuing the war against Ukraine while simultaneously transitioning to a hybrid war with NATO closer to 2028, he said.
"These could be aggressive actions against the Baltic states. Amid this, Russia is pushing a bill allowing the use of its army in other countries to 'protect Russian citizens,'" the CCD head wrote.
The Kremlin could resort to drone attacks and use small sabotage and reconnaissance groups of up to 20 people to infiltrate the Baltic states for specific operations, he noted. The information space is already pushing a narrative about an alleged threat to Russia from military enterprises located in NATO countries.
Russia is successfully rearming and will pose a "serious military threat" to NATO using conventional weapons by 2028, German Defense Ministry reported last year.
Russia practiced an attack on Finland, Norway, and the Baltic countries, particularly Estonia, and has not abandoned plans to carry it out, the Finnish publication Iltalehti reported in December 2024.