It is clear that we have announced our offensive campaign. I am avoiding the words counteroffensive and offensive here. Why campaign? Because it will not be a single offensive operation. It will be a whole range of defensive and offensive operations. Somewhere we will be defending ourselves (as is currently happening in the east), somewhere we will be pushing, advancing our position in order to seize a foothold for further offensives. As part of this set of operations, we can perform certain tasks: demining, breaking through defenses, repelling air attacks, breaking into defenses, developing an offensive, covering the flanks of rear facilities, and so on.
The General Staff proceeds from the totality of these tasks when it draws up a list of the weapons it needs, considering both time and their interrelationships. That is, it is not just that the Armed Forces wanted to strike at some rear targets and "give us long-range missiles." No, this is not why they are doing it. This is being done so that, for example, during the development of our offensive, if the enemy manages to gain a foothold in some defensive positions, he will use his operational and strategic reserves. So, to prevent these reserves from approaching, we need long-range missiles to hit these forces in their places of concentration and on their routes of advance. And, of course, to disrupt logistics. It is not just "give us something," but "give us this for something."
the United States does not want to cross the "red lines"
The West knows all this perfectly well. I exclude the absence of such discussions at the level of our General Staff or our Commander-in-Chief and Mr. Mark Milley. As for the fact that we are not given something, this situation should be viewed through the prism of the interests of specific countries. First of all, and enter into a direct conflict with Russia, feeling responsible to the whole world for unleashing a nuclear war.
This is a very weak position. I have already said that Putin cannot be provoked. He provokes both himself and the West. We are seeing this now with the missile attacks on Ukrainian ports and Odesa. However, after the June 24 Prigozhin rebellion, any step Putin takes now to act within his own vertical of power is a stalemate. It leads to a worsening of the situation for him. He cannot show his weakness because the military will feel their strength and influence and try to push him further, Possibly even to the Kremlin towers. If he shows his strength, he will have to change the entire military command. This is a severe deterioration of the situation at the front. Changing the commander at any level leads to a temporary loss of effectiveness. We have to reconfigure the system of management, subordination, and response to command.
It is now perilous to lose efficiency. It's a war of endurance - who will be the first to throw strategic reserves into battle? That's why operational reserves are being used, and the remaining combat-ready units are being redeployed from other areas to Kupyansk. There, they want to try to break through our defense so that we can bring in reserves and thus weaken our preparations for an offensive campaign.
We are taking the opposite steps. We are taking some offensive actions, forcing them to bring in both operational and strategic reserves. This way, we can determine the direction in which these reserves will be used and strike in other areas. This is the kind of game that is going on at the front. This is a game of endurance of the high command to see how it will react to this whole situation. It is a rather complicated and responsible game.
As I have already said, any requests for the weapons we need stem from the tasks we are trying to accomplish and the problems we are trying to solve. Right now, we have to overcome very dense minefields. We need both remote demining equipment and trawls that can be attached to vehicles. We also need counter-battery weapons to protect the trawls and air support. It's all interconnected. If we are denied any of these, our offensive's pace is slowing down. Therefore, all the claims, “we have given you everything, and you are not advancing,” are based on nothing. The best advice for such people is to visit the front and see everything with their own eyes.
We had overly optimistic assessments of Russia's potential and military-industrial complex, saying that everything was bent, not working, and would soon run out of steam. It will not run out of steam for a long time. We must prepare for a protracted offensive campaign because the enemy still has considerable potential regarding missiles. Their growing capacity for drone production is now being discussed in the media. We need to find our own answers, not just ask for help. We need to increase our own production.