The think tank made this conclusion while analyzing Putin’s statements made on Jan. 15 during his address to foreign diplomats.
Putin once again repeated his narrative that Russia’s war against Ukraine is allegedly a “direct response” to Western disregard for Russian interests through NATO expansion, which he claims violated supposed public promises not to enlarge the Alliance.
He also argued that peace in Ukraine will require returning to discussions about a “new security architecture,” a concept Russia had promoted even before launching its full-scale invasion.
ISW recalled that in late 2021, Russia issued ultimatums to NATO whose implementation would have effectively dismantled the Alliance and reshaped Europe’s security architecture, including demands to roll NATO back to its 1997 borders. Putin has repeatedly demonstrated that his ambitions exceed even the conditions outlined in the U.S.-backed 28-point peace proposal and its later versions. ISW analysts stressed that Putin remains committed to his original 2021–2022 war objectives, which go far beyond territorial conquest and are not limited to Ukraine.
At the same time, the Kremlin continues to promote false narratives claiming that Ukraine’s defense is on the verge of collapse. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Jan. 15 that Ukraine’s situation is allegedly deteriorating by the day and that Kyiv’s “decision-making corridor is narrowing,” implying that Ukraine must accept Russia’s demands now before it supposedly loses the ability to defend itself and is forced to capitulate later.
ISW highlighted, however, that Ukraine’s defense is not close to collapse and that Ukrainian forces have already prevented Putin’s primary objective — all of Ukraine subjugation by Russian military force.
The analysts cited territorial data that directly contradicts Kremlin rhetoric. At the peak of Russia’s invasion in Mar. 2022, Russian forces occupied 26.16% of Ukraine’s territory. After Ukraine’s counteroffensive pushed Russian troops out of Kyiv and northern Ukraine, this figure fell to 20.21% by late Apr. 2022. Following Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives, Russian control declined further to 17.84% by the end of 2022. The occupied territory remained largely unchanged in 2023 and 2024, fluctuating between 17.9% and 18.52%, and by the end of 2025 had increased slightly to 19.32%. In total, Russia gained only about 1.5% of Ukraine’s territory over the past three years, ISW calculated.
ISW noted that these gains were minimal and achieved at the pace of a walking soldier, as Russian forces relied on exhausting infantry assaults and failed to restore mechanized maneuver warfare throughout the war. Russian advances are therefore likely to remain slow and costly and are unlikely to trigger a rapid collapse of Ukraine’s frontline, ISW concluded.
The analysts also pointed out that Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov continues to spread what ISW describes as “obvious falsehoods,” exaggerating Russian battlefield successes to sustain the Kremlin narrative of inevitable victory.
On Jan. 15, Gerasimov once again claimed that Russian forces captured Kupyansk, despite numerous visual confirmations and reports proving otherwise.
ISW concluded that Putin’s political ambitions continue to expand even as Russia’s military results remain limited, and that his vision of peace remains inseparable from the attempt to dismantle NATO.