Russia risks other frontline sectors to take Pokrovsk - ISW

Both Ukrainian and Russian forces have made recent tactical gains in the Pokrovsk area, the analysts highlighted.

Geolocated videos published on Nov. 1 showed that Russian forces recently advanced into the southeastern part of Pokrovsk. Other videos published on Nov. 2 record Ukrainian strikes on several Russian soldiers in the northern part of Pokrovsk — ISW assessed that those Russians were attempting an infiltration that did not change control of terrain or the frontline in the fighting zone.

Ukrainian military sources and Russian “war correspondents” have recently claimed that Russian troops are attempting to infiltrate the northern part of Pokrovsk (held by Ukrainian forces), ISW noted. Russian “war correspondents” claimed advances in the northeast, central and southern parts of Pokrovsk, as well as in the northern and southeastern parts of Myrnohrad and in areas south of Hnativka and the village of Rih near Pokrovsk.

At the same time, one Russian “war correspondent” acknowledged that Ukrainian forces retook territory north of the village of Zatyshok (northeast of Pokrovsk).

On Nov. 2, Ukraine's General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops recaptured 400 square meters in an unspecified area on the Pokrovsk axis — likely referring to recent tactical counterattacks north and northwest of Pokrovsk.

ISW assessed that Russian forces have likely deprioritized offensive operations toward Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka in order to finish capturing Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

However, the Russian assault tactics on the Pokrovsk axis result in high rates of Russian casualties, the Institute notes. ISW cited Ukrainian military observations that occupiers reduced attack intensity on the Kostyantynivka axis after a failed mechanized assault on Oct. 27. Meanwhile, a Russian “war correspondent” said on Nov. 1 that Russia will likely prioritize taking Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad before resuming large-scale efforts to capture Kostyantynivka.

Petro Kuzik, commander of one of the Ukrainian battalions operating on the Pokrovsk axis, said on Nov. 1 that Russian assault units are seeking ways to bypass Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk and infiltrate the Ukrainian rear.

“The enemy’s tactic is the following: when they try to storm, they get ‘a beating’; other units then work to destroy our positions, and assault units are tasked with bypassing — they go around," Kuzik said.

"Somewhere they find a breach in the defense, somewhere maybe by covert landings, ravines and so on, and they accumulate forces.”

Commenting on his words, ISW suggested that Russia uses drones, artillery or lower-quality infantry to destroy Ukrainian positions. Kuzik also noted that Russians send poorly trained soldiers into assaults to draw fire from Ukrainian drones and artillery, thereby revealing the positions of Ukrainian crews. After that, more qualified Russian assault infantry attempts close fighting with those Ukrainian drone and artillery crews. At the same time, Russians repeatedly attack along the same routes, producing high losses on their side. Nevertheless, occupiers continuously commit new units and send reinforcements to the area, Kuzik added.

ISW highlighted Ukrainian Telegram posts showing a high concentration of Russian casualties — killed invaders — near Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk), including losses inflicted by Ukrainian drone strikes.

Oleksandr Vovk, spokesperson for the 117th separate heavy mechanized brigade operating on the Pokrovsk axis, said on Nov. 2 that units of the Russian 155th marine brigade (Pacific Fleet) suffered such heavy personnel losses that they are now ineffective in combat and are being withdrawn, replaced by other forces.

ISW analysts also noted mentions in Russian sources that Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks near the villages of Zatyshok, Boikivka, Fedorivka, Hryshyne, as well as the town of Rodynske and in areas inside Pokrovsk itself.

On Nov. 1, the 7th rapid reaction corps of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces said that Ukrainian forces “as a result of successful counteractions” improved the tactical situation in several blocks of Pokrovsk, where fierce fighting continues. They added that the situation in the city remains difficult and dynamic.

On Nov. 2, analysts from the DeepState project reported that Russian occupying forces made advances in Pokrovsk.