Russia struggles to sustain large-scale spring-summer campaign

He highlighted that the pace of Russia’s offensive this spring and summer will depend on the balance of forces on both sides - but now, with depleting manpower, logistical failures, and stalled offensives, Russia's ability to maintain its attacks this spring remains in question.

"Estimates vary on the scale of Russia’s ongoing mobilization," he said.

"One Ukrainian deputy minister reported that Russia is recruiting around 36,000 troops per month, who are rapidly deployed to compensate for mounting casualties. Other sources suggest that mobilization rates have dropped to just 600–800 recruits per day, indicating a significant slowdown."

"This means Russia lacks the manpower and resources to launch a large-scale spring-summer offensive beyond the current fighting along the front line," he concluded.

"The enemy doesn’t seem to have the ability or the conditions to conduct the spring-summer campaign on a different scale than what we already see on the battlefield."

Shuffling troops, running low on resources

Russia is expected to shift its existing forces rather than significantly expand its offensives.

Zgurets believes Moscow will try to move troops from the Pokrovsk area to reinforce its offensive on Kostiantynivka.On other fronts, he sees no signs of a major buildup of troops or equipment, making a significant escalation unlikely this spring.Reports indicate that battlefield clashes have decreased, with weather conditions and Russian exhaustion playing key roles.

One striking sign of Russia’s logistical struggles is its increasing reliance on horses and donkeys to transport supplies within a 10-kilometer "kill zone" where armored vehicles are too vulnerable to be deployed.

Russian forces stalled at Pokrovsk

• On Feb. 27, military spokesperson Viktor Trehubov said that Russian forces had "bogged down" around Pokrovsk, with signs of growing fatigue and logistical strain.
• Attempts to advance from the south and encircle Pokrovsk from the west have failed, he added.
• Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi recently ordered troop redeployments and improved coordination, slowing Russian advances on key sectors of the front.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continue to inflict heavy casualties on Russian troops. As of Feb. 24, Russia’s irrecoverable losses over three years of full-scale war exceed 250,000 personnel, Syrskyi confirmed.