Putin offers May 9 ceasefire to mask battlefield failures - ISW

Nation

30 April, 11:13 AM

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin used a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump to confirm he has no intention of abandoning his initial goals in the war against Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on April 29.

Putin also proposed a short-term ceasefire to Trump for the Russian "Victory Day" on May 9, the report emphasized. The Russian dictator earlier announced unilateral ceasefires on the front lines, including on Victory Day in 2025 and on Orthodox Easter on April 11-12 of this year, analysts reminded.

These unilateral ceasefires largely benefit Russia, as the Kremlin used them to accuse Ukraine of violating the ceasefire regime and to accumulate UAVs and long-range missiles for massive strikes resulting in higher civilian casualties, the report highlighted.

Russia, in particular, accumulated weapons for two large series of strikes within 48 hours following the so-called "Easter truce."

The Russian dictator also attempted to advance his cognitive warfare strategy in the conversation with Trump, falsely describing Ukraine's defense as collapsing and Russia's victory as inevitable, analysts point out.

Ukrainian Defense Forces have largely constrained the advance of Russian invaders along the front line, weakening the Russian offensive, the report emphasized.

Putin's aide Yury Ushakov claimed that the conversation between Trump and Putin lasted an hour and a half, the ISW reminded. According to him, Putin informed the American leader about the current state of Russia's war against Ukraine, claiming that Russia allegedly holds the strategic initiative and is "pushing back" Ukrainian forces, and that Moscow will achieve its military goals "in any case" but prefers to achieve this through diplomacy.

The Kremlin continuously attempts to present Ukraine as the uncompromising party at the negotiating table, refusing to capitulate to Putin's demands, despite Russia's inability to offer substantial reciprocal concessions. And Putin reiterated this narrative to the U.S. president on April 29, ISW analysts noted.

Putin once again claimed that the Russian army is performing well on the front to justify his demand for Ukraine's capitulation. However, the premise of Putin's statement remains false, analysts emphasize.

Ukrainian forces continue to deter the advance of Russian troops in several sectors of the front line, including in Moscow's priority Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian defenders are also inflicting increasing damage on the enemy — Russian troops are suffering heavy losses.

Ukrainian forces have been conducting significant counteroffensives in the south since January 2026, which have led to operational consequences across the entire front.

Russians are increasingly feeling the consequences of the war as the Russian economy continues to face significant challenges, losses continue to mount, and recruiting new soldiers becomes more difficult, the ISW wrote.

The Kremlin apparently seeks to mitigate some of these costs by trying to persuade Trump and the West to push Ukraine toward capitulation in a way it failed to achieve through Russia's full-scale invasion. And as part of these efforts, Moscow conceals its own military and economic failures, the ISW noted.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin discussed Ukraine, Iran, and "economic and energy projects" for more than an hour and a half, the Kremlin claimed on April 29. Putin's aide Yury Ushakov claimed that Putin expressed readiness to announce a "truce for the period of Victory Day." The dictator also threatened again that the "goals of the 'SMO' [so called special military operation - ed.] will be achieved."

Trump called the conversation with Putin "very good" when commenting on it.

The U.S. president also reported that he offered Putin a "small truce" and, according to him, the Russian dictator might agree to it.

Putin was ready to agree to a peace deal "some time ago," but "certain people" allegedly made it difficult for him to make this decision, in Trump's opinion.

The latest publicly known negotiations between Trump and the Russian dictator took place on March 9 at the U.S. president's initiative, the Kremlin claimed.

Інші новини

Все новости