According to ISW, Meduza’s report suggests that Russian security officials and military leaders may acknowledge the lack of significant territorial gains in proportion to the substantial losses in manpower and equipment suffered by Russian forces in Ukraine. ISW notes that Russia’s military leadership has so far tolerated heavy personnel losses in exchange for tactical gains, but not operational successes. Putin’s "theory of victory" has been predicated on accepting such losses as long as Russian forces continue to advance in Ukraine, ISW reminds.
In December 2024, Russian daily territorial advances in Ukraine slowed to approximately 9 square kilometers after three months of increased territorial gains accompanied by mounting personnel losses (in September, October, and November 2024). However, ISW reports that Russia’s military command may be less willing than Putin to continue absorbing high losses if the pace of territorial advances continues to decline.
Nevertheless, Meduza’s data indicates that Russian officials within the security services and armed forces are not prepared to end the war despite these losses. Instead, Meduza’s sources suggest that "high-ranking security officials" advocate for Putin to intensify military efforts, calling for mobilization and a "full transition to a wartime economy" in hopes of replenishing manpower and equipment on the battlefield, ISW notes.
ISW continues to assess that Putin resists formal partial mobilization of reservists or further mobilization of Russia’s economy, as such moves would be deeply unpopular among Russians and would further strain the labor market and the Russian economy. It remains unclear whether this faction of Russian security and military officials pushing for greater mobilization can persuade Putin to adopt more radical measures to meet the needs of Russia’s military in Ukraine. However, ISW suggests that increasing personnel losses and mounting challenges in achieving targets through hidden "voluntary" mobilization may force Putin to initiate a partial draft of reservists in the near future.
ISW analysts add that the stance of top Russian security officials indicates they likely see a lack of manpower as Russia’s biggest obstacle to achieving swift success on the battlefield, rather than inefficiencies within the military, poor planning by commanders, or the severe shortage of armored vehicles currently faced by Russian forces. However, ISW highlights that the primary factor behind Russia’s slow battlefield advances is not the lack of manpower but the inability of occupying forces to resume maneuver warfare.
Russian forces have recently demonstrated an ability to achieve slow, grinding successes in infantry assaults on the Pokrovske and Kurakhove fronts. However, their inability to conduct rapid mechanized maneuvers has prevented them from turning these tactical gains into deeper operational-level penetrations into Ukrainian defenses, ISW notes.
Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have struggled to reintroduce maneuver warfare on a battlefield increasingly dominated by drones, ISW observes. Russian forces, however, face additional challenges, including critical deficiencies in preparing frontline commanders and planning military operations, the analysts say.
In conclusion, ISW states that Meduza’s report underscores that Russia’s security elite, like Putin himself, is not interested in resolving the war through peace talks in the near future. The report mentions that the Russian elite is focused on creating a "victory narrative" for postwar Russia. ISW believes that this focus, coupled with the elite’s desire to escalate the war, further suggests that Russia’s leaders support Putin’s intent to negotiate only on terms dictated by Russia and to secure significant victories to justify the war to the Russian public. Putin and other senior Kremlin officials have repeatedly stated that Russia is unwilling to engage in fair and meaningful peace talks unless the terms amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation, ISW reminds. The Russian elite is therefore likely to continue backing Putin’s demands in any negotiations.